If Kuwait Had Won
Reconsidering history.

s the United States continues the war against terrorism, many are naturally being reminded of Operation Desert Storm and of the campaign against Iraq, after Saddam Hussein swallowed up Kuwait in 1990. At the same time, the Bush administration is daily sending out signals of how it is rethinking America's Middle East policies in general.

Under the circumstances, it is useful to reexamine the events of 1990-91. In particular, it is extraordinarily helpful to ask the question: What would have happened if Kuwait had won?

Yes — back when the Iraqi army invaded and overran Kuwait, suppose events had turned out differently? Suppose that the Kuwaiti defense forces had succeeded in rallying and repulsing the Iraqi invaders in 1990. What would have happened thereafter? Here's a possible answer:

As the Iraqi military approaches the Kuwaiti border in 1990, the valiant Kuwaitis launch a surprise counterattack. Their army drives deep into Iraqi territory, knocking out the legions of Republican Guards after destroying Saddam's air force, and then seizes Iraqi lands, especially the West bank of the Euphrates River. The Iraqi military is in shambles. Kuwait announces that it intends to sit tight in the new Iraqi lands it has captured, though it also expresses willingness to discuss territorial compromise as part of a comprehensive peace agreement.

The Iraqis respond with a firm rejection. We will never surrender to Kuwaiti aggression, Saddam swears. Iraq then declares that it will never make peace with the Kuwaiti imperialists. It begins a rearmament process. Iraq is supported by most of the countries of the Arab League. An Iraqi diplomatic offensive leads to the United Nations Security Council denouncing Kuwaiti aggression and militarism. The U.N. demands that the occupation be ended.

Iraq then sets up the Southern Iraqi Liberation Front, or SILF, a Baghdad-run terrorist organization that strikes Kuwait from the inside by planting bombs in Kuwaiti cities and murdering Kuwaiti civilians. SILF, actually controlled by operatives of Iraq's secret service, announces that it seeks to achieve self-determination for all of southern Iraq — Saddam's code term for Kuwait. SILF also launches a massive propaganda campaign around the world denouncing Kuwaiti aggression against Iraq. Specifically, SILF insists there will never be peace so long as Kuwait continues to oppress Iraqi civilians and deny the southern Iraqis their national rights.

Meanwhile, SILF terrorists escalate the attacks on Kuwaitis around the world. They hijack Kuwaiti planes and murder Kuwaiti diplomats. The results do not take long in appearing. The United Nations General Assembly adopts a series of resolutions demanding that Kuwait withdraw from the West Bank of the Euphrates, and that it grant the southern Iraqis the right to set up their own state in the territory Kuwait seized from Saddam. The leaders of the European Union endorse the inalienable right of the southern Iraqis on the West Bank to resist occupation. On campuses throughout western Europe and the United States, a series of Solidarity Days with southern Iraqis are held, in which Kuwaiti aggression and racism are denounced.

Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department demands that Kuwait refrain from allowing any of its citizens to move into the occupied territories. They insist that Land for Peace must form the basis for any resolution of the conflict — though by that they do NOT mean granting Iraqi land to Kuwait in exchange for peace. The secretary of state demands that all illegal Kuwaiti settlements in occupied southern Iraq be removed. Some European countries impose trade sanctions on Kuwait.

The campaign of SILF terrorism escalates. Americans insist that there is no military solution to the problem of southern Iraqi terrorism and that only a series of goodwill gestures by Kuwait can restore order. European leaders declare that the illegal Kuwaiti settlements are the source of all the tensions. Saddam Hussein uses the period to expand his military. Iraq is flooded with state-of-the-art war material provided by the West and by Russia. The secretary of state insists that the U.S. needs to nurture moderates in the Arab world like Saddam, who can serve as a bulwark against Islamist fundamentalism and radicalism. The head of SILF is hosted at a banquet on Downing Street.

Saddam's army initiates a campaign of shelling Kuwaiti towns from the border. When the Kuwaitis retaliate, the United Nations denounces "Kuwaiti aggression." The American administration demands that Kuwait exercise restraint and begin dialogue with Saddam's people. Newspapers around the world are filled with news stories about discrimination against ethnic Iraqis and Shiites in Kuwait. Groups of dissident Kuwaitis who endorse the SILF and Saddam's activities are hosted in a World Tour for Persian Gulf Peace.

The leader of the SILF terrorists announces that his organization is willing to consider recognizing Kuwait as a country if the Kuwaitis agree to withdraw from the occupied territories. In response, the Nobel committee grants the head of SILF a Peace Prize. Harvard accepts a grant to open a Southern Iraqi Studies Department.

Marxists and leftists from Kuwait and abroad set up a Gulf Peace Movement, based on recognizing SILF as the legitimate representative of the southern Iraqi people and accepting its platform of demands. It is immediately endorsed by student demonstrators at Berkeley and elsewhere. They march under the slogans, "No Justice — No Peace" and "People before Kuwaiti Oil Profits."

Border violence continues, with SILF incursions into Kuwait backed by Iraqi artillery. After each SILF atrocity against Kuwaiti civilians, American leaders reiterate their calls for restraint and further concessions by Kuwait. They remind the Kuwaitis that self-determination for southern Iraqis is what lies at the heart of the Persian Gulf problem. They insist that if the Kuwaitis had been more sensitive to the needs and rights of their southern Iraqi minority citizens, Saddam would never have been driven to trying to intervene on their behalf in the first place. Peter Jennings declares that the SILF incursions are what Kuwait had coming. When Kuwaiti officials warn that the U.S. is appeasing Saddam the way Chamberlain appeased Germany, the State Department spokesman rejects this as "unacceptable."

The strength of the Iraqi military grows. Europe initiates an arms embargo against Kuwait, while expanding military exports to Saddam. The Americans take Saddam's Iraq off the official list of countries that sponsor terrorism. Iraqi students are welcomed in American university departments, including those of nuclear science, chemistry, and biology. After school buses full of Kuwaiti children are attacked in Kuwait, the Kuwaiti military shells some SILF training camps in Iraq in retaliation. The BBC describes the attack on the Kuwaiti children as "what Kuwait calls terror." The Arab League denounces the state terrorism of Kuwait. When Kuwait assassinates several SILF terrorist leaders who had been behind the attacks on the Kuwaiti children, the French government denounces it as an Assassin State, little better than Israel.

Later, after Osama bin Laden attacks New York and Washington, the world media remind everyone that the only reason the U.S. was targeted was because America had failed to liberate the Iraqi occupied territories from Kuwaiti rule, and had ignored the sufferings of the southern Iraqi people in the west bank of the Euphrates for too long. The American administration ignores reports that the anthrax being sent about the U.S. may have come from Iraqi agents.

Around the world, the campaign to delegitimize Kuwait continues. By what right was Kuwait ever established on Iraqi soil in the first place? scream the pro-Saddam demonstrators. The city of Berkeley adopts refugee camps of displaced southern Iraqis as its sister cities. Iraqi flags fly on American campuses. Saddam's face appears on the sweatshirts of anti-globalization protesters.

The Iraqi military prepares for a showdown. SILF terror escalates, and Saddam threatens to intervene on behalf of the southern Iraqi victims of Kuwaiti racism and oppression. The Americans insist that the Kuwaitis meet Saddam's terms, in order not to disrupt the anti-terror coalition in which Saddam is a partner. As the bombing in Afghanistan continues, the Kuwaitis are ordered out of the occupied territories. Encouraged, SILF escalates its terrorism. Kuwaiti cities are drenched with the blood of the victims of terrorist attacks. As the Americans target Taliban leaders for assassination, Secretary Powell makes it clear in no uncertain terms that Kuwait dare not follow the example of the U.S. in retaliating against its attackers.

When the Iraqi army at long last crosses the Kuwaiti border, the Western countries breathe a sigh of relief. Finally, the irritating problem of the Gulf conflict will be resolved. The world can get on with more important business. The Iraqi troops enter Kuwait City and set up detention camps.

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