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Florida recount is finally over. The powers-that-be have declared
that George W. Bush really did win the presidency last year. But
don't count on liberals being satisfied. They need to get their
voters to the polls in 2002, and there's nothing like a grievance
to get people off the couch and into the voting booth. And, liberals
being liberals, the grievance in question will relate to race.
The editorial
writers at both the New York Times and the Washington
Post have been quick to note that predominantly black precincts
in Florida had more than three times as many spoiled ballots as
white precincts. The Times let a political scientist from
Hamilton College draw the politically correct conclusion: "The
finding about black voters is really strong. It raises the issue
about whether there's some way that the voting system is set up
that discriminates against blacks."
The study commissioned
by the Times and other news organizations does not prove
racial discrimination. As the Times noted, the study did
find that race affected the difference in spoiled ballots "even
after accounting for differences in income, education and voting
technology." But that's not enough to prove race mattered.
Other factors ignored by the study may explain the difference between
black and white precincts.
For instance,
imagine that first-time voters in general fail to successfully vote
at a higher rate than veteran voters. Imagine also that black and
white first-time voters spoil their ballots at the same rate. Finally,
imagine that a strong get-out-the-vote effort by Florida Democrats
produced many more first-time black voters than first-time white
voters.
Under those
conditions, black precincts would end up with many more spoiled
ballots than white precincts and race would have nothing to do
with the difference. The real factors at work would be the strong
turnout by black voters and the difficulties of first-time voting
experienced by members of all races.
Florida did
see a strong African-American turnout in 2000, many of whom were
voting for the first time. It's reasonable to assume that first-time
voters in general spoil their ballots more than more experienced
citizens. Voting seems simple, but doing most things for the first
time can be tough. Remember the first time you recorded a movie
on your VCR?
The new study
did not take into account how often black and white first-time voters
spoil their ballots. And — since that variable might plausibly
explain the observed differences in spoiled ballots — absent
definitive data on first-time voting, we have no reason to assume
a racial difference.
Liberals are
a long way from proving that racial discrimination mattered in Florida's
outcome. And focusing incessantly on racial differences in spoiled
ballots runs another risk that no one wants to talk about. Some
Americans will look at the threefold difference in rejected votes
and conclude that black voters are less competent than other Americans
at exercising the franchise.
Of course,
this belief, like the liberal belief in racial malice, is a myth.
If successful voting has more to do with experience than with race,
bigots will just have to find other excuses to think ill of African
Americans.
Nevertheless,
what we conclude about race and the Florida outcome will affect
how we go forward as a nation. If the myth of racial malice wins
out, liberals will fight future elections by waving the bloody shirt
of racial injustice. American politics will become even more divided
and embittered.
Accepting the
likelihood that first-time voters had problems at the Florida polls
offers a less divisive approach. Both parties will focus more on
making sure their novice supporters know how to vote successfully.
Local election boards should also improve their voter-education
efforts. The political parties may easily find other common ground
on ways to help novice voters.
Liberals have
a lot invested politically in seeing President Bush's victory as
a racist plot. But the data we have don't support that conclusion.
Liberals ought to put away the race card, and focus their energies
on preparing their new voters for the election of 2002.
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