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down, one to go. And for Bret Schundler, New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey
is a much easier target than Bob Franks.
Consider these
facts:
Jim McGreevey
raised Woodbridge property taxes 71% in the same time it took Schundler
cut them.
Jim McGreevey
increased Woodbridge debt even faster than the now defeated former
Republican leadership.
Violent crime
in Woodbridge increased while it dropped in Jersey City.
Jim McGreevey
cast the deciding vote for Jim Florio's $2.8-billion tax increase,
including higher income taxes, higher sales taxes, higher gasoline
taxes, new telephone taxes — even a tax on toilet paper!
Jim McGreevey
voted for Jim Florio's failed auto-insurance scheme that helped
give New Jersey the highest rates in the nation.
Jim McGreevey
supports Mount Laurel, which means more urban-style "slums
of tomorrow" in our suburban communities.
Jim McGreevey
opposes publicly sponsored referendums.
Jim McGreevey
supports the $8.6-billion School Construction Bond Scheme and doesn't
support the people's constitutional right to vote on new state debt.
Jim McGreevey
opposes Schundler's plan to take tolls off the Garden State Parkway,
calling it "crazy."
Jim McGreevey
voted for partial-birth abortion, which even many of McGreevey's
fellow Democrats have compared to infanticide.
Schundler owns
the moral high ground on the issues. Will that translate into electoral
victory? The New York Times has observed, "New Jersey
Republicans start out at a disadvantage in any statewide race with
at least 300,000 fewer registered voters than the Democratic Party
has." But this is irrelevant. Party enrollment is based on
participation in party primaries and, thanks to the closed nature
of the now defeated Republican Establishment, participation in GOP
primaries has been low while Democratic party machines encourage
a high turnout even for an uncontested primary such as this one.
Consider how
the state breaks out and how it will break for Schundler.
The 287
Belt. This covers the high-income, heavily Catholic suburban
towns within ten miles of Interstate 287 outside of Middlesex County
and Franklin Township in Somerset and includes an area where median
family income easily tops $100K. These were the areas where Schundler
piled up huge 60%-plus numbers. Catholics made up at least 60% of
primary voters in this area and will comprise a clear majority of
voters here in the fall. Schundler's pro-life stand should enable
him to run even stronger than the 2-1 and 3-1 margins Christie Whitman
ran up against McGreevey in these areas four years ago. McGreevey
cannot win this election unless he is able to cut into these suburbs;
his vote for Florio's taxes puts him slightly behind the 8-ball
here. This is where you supposedly find "moderate" Republicans,
but if they exist, they didn't turn out on primary day.
The rural
northwest. West of the 287 belt is some of the most Republican
country east of the Appalachians and north of the Mason-Dixon line.
Here is where many of New Jersey's evangelical Christians are located.
This area includes Schundler's three best counties: Sussex, Warren,
and Hunterdon, where Schundler won 66, 69, and 68 percent of the
vote, respectively. Schundler's campaign needs even bigger numbers
in these counties to win in the fall.
The turnpike
belt. This area generally breaks out into the Catholic towns,
the Jewish towns, and the Princeton-Trenton Corridor. This area
could be defined as being within ten miles of the New Jersey Turnpike
and contains the bulk of the Democratic vote in the state. The Catholic
towns have a growing Hispanic population but virtually no blacks.
McGreevey beat Whitman in virtually every one of these towns four
years ago — some by margins as high as 2-1. Here too incomes are
high, with homes selling for $200K or more and median household
incomes in the $80K range. Republican presidential candidates won
solid margins in these towns in the 1980s and while the Hispanic
vote has increased Democratic numbers here, Schundler's tax message
and pro-life stand should allow him to win the non-Hispanic Catholic
vote and perhaps win 30 percent of non-Cuban Hispanics. The Princeton-Trenton
Corridor is very liberal and the home base of Independent candidate
Bill Schluter, who might take from Schundler or he might take liberal
votes in this part of the state. Whatever happens, Schundler will
get destroyed in the Princeton-Trenton belt by 2-1 or worse.
The Jewish
towns are difficult at best for most Republicans, but Schundler
has an edge because of the tax issue. McGreevey fared poorly with
Jewish voters in 1997 and lost Jewish women to Whitman. This time
the reverse will occur. McGreevey, running a campaign fixated on
guns and abortion, will win Jewish women; Schundler, running a campaign
on taxes, will win Jewish men (a similar pattern to the 1993 Whitman-Florio
race). The result: narrow McGreevey margins and even deficits in
the Jewish suburbs similar to 1997 (Whitman won 61 percent of Tenafly's
vote that year.)
The inner
city. This area consists of election districts where McGreevey
topped 80 percent of the vote in 1997; they are hopeless for any
Republican, even Bret Schundler (Schundler won his mayoral races
in nonpartisan elections). Schundler might pick up a few extra points
in the projects, but that will only be a result of a message tailored
to a white/Hispanic and generally suburban-homeowner constituency.
Any votes here will be a welcome surprise.
The upper
shore. Monmouth and Ocean Counties are, like the 287 belt, heavily
Catholic but also contain a greater mix of less affluent areas —
especially as one starts getting farther down the Parkway. McGreevey
needs to win these counties outright to take the election. Schundler
won 65% in Monmouth and 55% in Ocean. These two counties were especially
sensitive to the Florio tax revolt of 1990-1991 as well as Schundler's
promise to get rid of tolls.
The rural
south. Franks narrowly busted my 21-county prediction by taking
Salem, Cape May, and Cumberland at the southern end of the state
and leading very narrowly in preliminary returns in Gloucester and
Burlington (Schundler won Camden, Ocean, and Atlantic. Franks also
won his home county of Union — with just 56%.) McGreevey obviously
sees this as a sign of weakness and will seek to improve over his
1997 deficit in this region — hoping to win counties like Cumberland
that voted for Jon Corzine in 2000. But this part of the state also
has a high percentage of evangelical Christians and Salem, Cape
May, and Cumberland lie mostly below the Mason-Dixon Line. These
counties contain the farthest-north concentration of rural blacks
in America and have voting patterns not unlike coastal North Carolina.
Coincidentally, the area's longtime conservative Democratic state
senator recently switched to Republican. These voters are Jesse
Helms Republicans and are looking for a conservative message that
confronts the liberals. State taxes are not as big an issue here
in this lower-income part of the state and the area strongly supported
Florio against Whitman in 1993. McGreevey's abortion and gun positions
here are a big negative and voters here dislike anything that smells
of political correctness.
Schundler needs
only to keep his eye on the ball — taxes — and he will win. The
first thing the Republicans in Trenton should do to show their colors
is to kill the $420-million tax hike in this year's budget. As the
nominee, Schundler needs to wrest control of the party right away;
an auspicious first step would be to call for spending cuts.
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