Eyes on the Prize
If Schundler keeps his eye on the ball — taxes — he will win.

By Rick Shaftan, a pollster and media consultant in Trenton, N.J.
June 29, 2001 8:45 a.m.

ne down, one to go. And for Bret Schundler, New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey is a much easier target than Bob Franks.

Consider these facts:

Jim McGreevey raised Woodbridge property taxes 71% in the same time it took Schundler cut them.

Jim McGreevey increased Woodbridge debt even faster than the now defeated former Republican leadership.

Violent crime in Woodbridge increased while it dropped in Jersey City.

Jim McGreevey cast the deciding vote for Jim Florio's $2.8-billion tax increase, including higher income taxes, higher sales taxes, higher gasoline taxes, new telephone taxes — even a tax on toilet paper!

Jim McGreevey voted for Jim Florio's failed auto-insurance scheme that helped give New Jersey the highest rates in the nation.

Jim McGreevey supports Mount Laurel, which means more urban-style "slums of tomorrow" in our suburban communities.

Jim McGreevey opposes publicly sponsored referendums.

Jim McGreevey supports the $8.6-billion School Construction Bond Scheme and doesn't support the people's constitutional right to vote on new state debt.

Jim McGreevey opposes Schundler's plan to take tolls off the Garden State Parkway, calling it "crazy."

Jim McGreevey voted for partial-birth abortion, which even many of McGreevey's fellow Democrats have compared to infanticide.

Schundler owns the moral high ground on the issues. Will that translate into electoral victory? The New York Times has observed, "New Jersey Republicans start out at a disadvantage in any statewide race with at least 300,000 fewer registered voters than the Democratic Party has." But this is irrelevant. Party enrollment is based on participation in party primaries and, thanks to the closed nature of the now defeated Republican Establishment, participation in GOP primaries has been low while Democratic party machines encourage a high turnout even for an uncontested primary such as this one.

Consider how the state breaks out and how it will break for Schundler.

The 287 Belt. This covers the high-income, heavily Catholic suburban towns within ten miles of Interstate 287 outside of Middlesex County and Franklin Township in Somerset and includes an area where median family income easily tops $100K. These were the areas where Schundler piled up huge 60%-plus numbers. Catholics made up at least 60% of primary voters in this area and will comprise a clear majority of voters here in the fall. Schundler's pro-life stand should enable him to run even stronger than the 2-1 and 3-1 margins Christie Whitman ran up against McGreevey in these areas four years ago. McGreevey cannot win this election unless he is able to cut into these suburbs; his vote for Florio's taxes puts him slightly behind the 8-ball here. This is where you supposedly find "moderate" Republicans, but if they exist, they didn't turn out on primary day.

The rural northwest. West of the 287 belt is some of the most Republican country east of the Appalachians and north of the Mason-Dixon line. Here is where many of New Jersey's evangelical Christians are located. This area includes Schundler's three best counties: Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon, where Schundler won 66, 69, and 68 percent of the vote, respectively. Schundler's campaign needs even bigger numbers in these counties to win in the fall.

The turnpike belt. This area generally breaks out into the Catholic towns, the Jewish towns, and the Princeton-Trenton Corridor. This area could be defined as being within ten miles of the New Jersey Turnpike and contains the bulk of the Democratic vote in the state. The Catholic towns have a growing Hispanic population but virtually no blacks. McGreevey beat Whitman in virtually every one of these towns four years ago — some by margins as high as 2-1. Here too incomes are high, with homes selling for $200K or more and median household incomes in the $80K range. Republican presidential candidates won solid margins in these towns in the 1980s and while the Hispanic vote has increased Democratic numbers here, Schundler's tax message and pro-life stand should allow him to win the non-Hispanic Catholic vote and perhaps win 30 percent of non-Cuban Hispanics. The Princeton-Trenton Corridor is very liberal and the home base of Independent candidate Bill Schluter, who might take from Schundler or he might take liberal votes in this part of the state. Whatever happens, Schundler will get destroyed in the Princeton-Trenton belt by 2-1 or worse.

The Jewish towns are difficult at best for most Republicans, but Schundler has an edge because of the tax issue. McGreevey fared poorly with Jewish voters in 1997 and lost Jewish women to Whitman. This time the reverse will occur. McGreevey, running a campaign fixated on guns and abortion, will win Jewish women; Schundler, running a campaign on taxes, will win Jewish men (a similar pattern to the 1993 Whitman-Florio race). The result: narrow McGreevey margins and even deficits in the Jewish suburbs similar to 1997 (Whitman won 61 percent of Tenafly's vote that year.)

The inner city. This area consists of election districts where McGreevey topped 80 percent of the vote in 1997; they are hopeless for any Republican, even Bret Schundler (Schundler won his mayoral races in nonpartisan elections). Schundler might pick up a few extra points in the projects, but that will only be a result of a message tailored to a white/Hispanic and generally suburban-homeowner constituency. Any votes here will be a welcome surprise.

The upper shore. Monmouth and Ocean Counties are, like the 287 belt, heavily Catholic but also contain a greater mix of less affluent areas — especially as one starts getting farther down the Parkway. McGreevey needs to win these counties outright to take the election. Schundler won 65% in Monmouth and 55% in Ocean. These two counties were especially sensitive to the Florio tax revolt of 1990-1991 as well as Schundler's promise to get rid of tolls.

The rural south. Franks narrowly busted my 21-county prediction by taking Salem, Cape May, and Cumberland at the southern end of the state and leading very narrowly in preliminary returns in Gloucester and Burlington (Schundler won Camden, Ocean, and Atlantic. Franks also won his home county of Union — with just 56%.) McGreevey obviously sees this as a sign of weakness and will seek to improve over his 1997 deficit in this region — hoping to win counties like Cumberland that voted for Jon Corzine in 2000. But this part of the state also has a high percentage of evangelical Christians and Salem, Cape May, and Cumberland lie mostly below the Mason-Dixon Line. These counties contain the farthest-north concentration of rural blacks in America and have voting patterns not unlike coastal North Carolina. Coincidentally, the area's longtime conservative Democratic state senator recently switched to Republican. These voters are Jesse Helms Republicans and are looking for a conservative message that confronts the liberals. State taxes are not as big an issue here in this lower-income part of the state and the area strongly supported Florio against Whitman in 1993. McGreevey's abortion and gun positions here are a big negative and voters here dislike anything that smells of political correctness.

Schundler needs only to keep his eye on the ball — taxes — and he will win. The first thing the Republicans in Trenton should do to show their colors is to kill the $420-million tax hike in this year's budget. As the nominee, Schundler needs to wrest control of the party right away; an auspicious first step would be to call for spending cuts.