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 onservative
businessman Bill Simon has made dramatic gains in his campaign to
secure the Republican nomination for governor. Simon, a board member
of Heritage Foundation who is supported by many movement conservatives,
has run a suspiciously low-key campaign. He and Secretary of State
Jones have been scrambling against the dominant front-runner, former
Los Angeles Mayor Richard J. Riordan. The winner of the March primary
will face Gray Davis in November.
The Field poll
shows, among more likely voters, Riordan at 46%, and Jones and Simon
at 13%. According to Field, Riordan has remained constant for four
months. It's good news for Riordan because he remains solidly ahead.
It's also bad news for Riordan, because his campaigning and advertising
appear irrelevant. Meanwhile, novice Simon has jumped from the single-digit
5 to the double-digit 13.
But more encouraging
for Simon is the Los Angeles Times poll which shows, among
more likely voters, Riordan 34%, Simon 20%, and Jones 13%. Using
a controversial simulation for a very low turnout, the Times
then puts Riordan at 26%, Simon at 21%, and Jones at 14%. While
knowledgeable pundits are skeptical of the poll's number crunching,
you would expect the wealthy Simon to get his checkbook out. No
wonder political reporters are saying to Simon, "If you're
serious, show me the money."
But the issues-and-ideas
conservative has bought only modest advertising, mainly in the smaller
cities. Outside the costly Los Angeles media market. L.A. is where
Riordan is well known. But if Simon's limited advertising (with
Rudy G's endorsement) produced dramatic gains, what might a serious
campaign achieve? We may never know.
Had Simon commenced
major TV on January 2, it might now be a Riordan-Simon race. Instead,
it remains a three-way race. Why? The underfunded Jones has yet
to buy TV time. Simon's gains show the volatility of the undecided
voters. So, once Jones antes up, he can move quickly, too.
That makes
it hard for an anti-Riordan vote to materialize. A three-way race
has a different dynamic, because there is no two-way action/reaction
with Riordan, no two-way debates with Riordan, no two-way press
coverage. It's murky three-way. What if a limited anti-Riordan vote
still develops? It would be split between Simon and Jones, yielding
Riordan a plurality.
Jones pins
his hopes on these trends: (a) Simon still does not open his wallet.
(b) Riordan still makes mistakes. Yet, Simon remains on the ballot.
Riordan remains dominant.
That's why
Democrat governor Gray Davis assumes he will face Riordan. Davis,
who has $30 million banked, is already spending millions attacking
Riordan. The main Davis 30-second spot challenges Riordan as untrustworthy.
It's a single-issue ad, on abortion. Riordan is attacked for his
past: (a) Supporting for the Supreme Court Robert Bork, who would
overturn Roe. (b) Saying in a cable interview that abortion
is murder. (c) Funding pro-life groups. Riordan's dilemma is his
past failure to rationalize his pro-choice position. Moreover, his
obsession with the counterculture has made him not pro-choice, but
pro-abortion. In the California version of "When did you stop
beating your wife?" Riordan is daily asked, "When did
you stop believing that abortion as murder?
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