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 hy
wasn't Richard Riordan skiing in Sun Valley this weekend?
Riordan, the
former mayor of Los Angeles, is a registered Republican. Gray Davis,
governor of California, is an active Democrat. Riordan has been
running against the vulnerable Davis. But something happened along
the way to November.
It's the Republican
primary.
On March 5,
Riordan first must face the two Bills.
Secretary of
State Bill Jones is the most plausible alternative to Davis. But,
after New Hampshire, Jones had switched to John McCain. Accordingly,
Jones alienated Republican fat cats.
These country-club
Republican do not win elections. In fact, they pay handily to lose.
They may be clueless politically, but they have influence. So, they
met in smoke-filled rooms, without smoke. They emerged and encouraged
Riordan to run.
What happened
before they recruited Riordan last spring?
Riordan himself
had already urged the other Bill to run. That's Bill Simon, ideas-conservative.
Riordan importuned Simon, you guessed it, in Idaho.
Simon took
Riordan seriously. These two skier friends are both Catholic businessmen-philanthropists.
But Simon is the "traditional values" sort. And Riordan
blooms late for the counterculture.
Then, with
Riordan himself a possible candidate, Simon reconsidered. What caused
Simon, nonetheless, to persevere? Riordan's campaign seemed in disarray
from the start. And Simon witnessed Riordan's moves to the left.
Simon watched Riordan and his campaign alienate Republicans. So
Riordan unintentionally kept Simon in the race. Finally, if belatedly,
Simon spent a few million of his own dollars on TV ads.
Simon made
progress. That's how Riordan came to cancel his long-planned weekend
in Idaho.
Consider that
Riordan once enjoyed a 2-to-1 lead over Simon and Jones, combined.
But Riordan
and his campaign team could not answer this question: How do you
win an easy primary? Pretend it's tough.
Instead, the
Riordan campaign took Republicans for granted. Can we count the
mistakes that the Riordan campaign made?
Meanwhile,
Gov. Gray Davis spent millions in attack ads. He defined Riordan
before Riordan could define himself. Everyone anticipated these
ads, except the Riordan campaign.
Now Simon ads
may attack Riordan, probably on fiscal, not social, issues. In turn,
Riordan might run ads attacking Simon. That's because Simon did
not vote in several past elections.
Earlier, Simon
could have blown tortoise Bill Jones out of the water. But Simon's
ad campaign was late and cheap. Thus, Simon remains the new (rich)
kid on the block. His assault on Riordan could leave an opening
for Jones. The low-budget Jones has just enough money for TV ads
either (a) everywhere except the costly L.A. media market, or (b)
everywhere, with a smaller buy.
The Jones ads starting tomorrow showcase former Republican Gov.
George Deukmejian. The Duke goes after Riordan ("a liberal
big-city mayor who has given millions of dollars to Democrats...Riordan
is a man I couldn't vote for"). Duke says Simon "has never
been elected, and never even voted in a Republican primary."
The Jones ad featuring Duke ends with Jones him on camera: "I
offer what my opponents can't -- experience and Republican values."
This spot's script is absolutely right-on. Its message towers above
normal anemic copy.
Are there enough dollars behind this spot, amidst the ad clutter
of the last two weeks? Could they open up a new front against Riordan?
Will new Riordan ads criticizeJones for supporting former Gov. Pete
Wilson's 1991 tax hike?
Sound messy?
Imagine--Davis and Simon each run ads attacking Riordan, whose own
ads attack Davis. Now, new Jones ads attack Riordan and Simon.
How can the
Riordan campaign make it more (or less) confusing?
An all-purpose
Riordan ad would attack Simon and Jones, then end up positive
for Riordan.
Expect an exciting
three-way race--Riordan, Simon, Jones?
This weekend,
Democrats met in Los Angeles at their state convention. No wonder
Gray Davis told the convention, "Whoever my opponent is."
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