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entertaining intra-party soap opera" — political analyst
Charles Cook on the California Republican primary for governor.
Read on.
The winner
of the March 5 primary will face Democrat Gov. Gray Davis in November.
Former Los
Angeles Mayor Richard J. Riordan had led his two opponents, combined,
by 2-to-1. Riordan's likely coronation once gave Secretary of State
Bill Jones and businessman Bill Simon cold feet. But, ironically,
Riordan's campaign blunders kept them in the race.
Cook had predicted
that Richard Riordan's "eclectic team of advisers" would
clash. But Riordan's Democrat/Republican team has stayed on the
same page. An epilogue?
Last year,
strong-willed veteran Democrat consultant Clint Reilly announced
he had come out of political retirement to cochair Riordan's campaign.
Reilly managed Kathleen Rice Brown's unsuccessful campaign against
Gov. Pete Wilson (1994). Newspapers reported that Riordan's kitchen
cabinet also included high-profile Democrats Susan Estrich, the
Michael Dukakis campaign manager, and Patrick Caddell, the independent
bad-boy Democrat.
Riordan next
promoted a TV-ad producer, Don Sipple, to the job of his chief strategist.
Republican Sipple produced Wilson's controversial "they keep
coming" immigration TV spot.
It's all in
the family: Sipple also works for Riordan supporter Arnold Schwarzneggar.
The actor has reportedly invested $1 million to qualify a November
ballot initiative. The measure on after-school programs would be
a warm-up for Schwarzneggar's future run for governor (2006).
Last year,
Riordan also recruited Ron Hartwig as his campaign's "chief
executive officer." The affable Hartwig headed the Los Angeles
office of the PR powerhouse Hill and Knowlton. Dennis Hunt, with
a similar corporate PR background, is "chief operating officer."
Hartwig and Hunt never ran a political campaign. So they rely on
Riordan's political director Kevin Spillane, who masterminds the
candidate's quixotic appeal to Republicans.
Political analyst
Stuart Rothenberg, Cook's frequent partner on CNN's Politics
Today, said Riordan's own advisers called him "crotchety."
They also called Riordan's first debate performance "shaky."
But isn't Riordan following their script?
Rothenberg
wrote in Roll Call (Nov. 26) that "Riordan's early lead
in the primary looks about as solid as a block of ice in the Southern
California sun." Sure, California moved its June primary to
less-sunny March. But does new polling show a Riordan meltdown?
Simon and Riordan
now are expected to trade TV attack ads. But what if Republicans
look for an authority figure? Enter former Republican Gov. George
Deukmejian, who has sent mail attacking Riordan and boosting Jones.
And Jones is finally on TV, with ads featuring icon Duke, who hits
Riordan and Simon. Duke: Riordan is anti-Republican, Simon a nonvoter,
Jones offers experience.
But is the
Jones ad-buy anemic? Not to worry. In this crazy race, new Davis
ads include Deukmejian attacking Riordan. These Democrat ads attack
Riordan on Republican issues. Example: Riordan is hit for wanting
to tax the Internet. A soap opera, indeed.
Will these
Davis anti-Riordan ads (using Republican themes) be seen as campaign
dirty tricks? As interference in the Republican primary? The Riordan
camp will charge Davis, fearing Riordan the most, wants Riordan
to lose the primary. Could the ads backfire among Republicans and
actually help Riordan? By the time the dust settles, more people
will know that Duke is anti-Riordan. At that point, will Simon or
Jones benefit? Anything can happen, given the volatile Republican
electorate and its expected low turnout.
On March 5,
what if Simon or Jones wins, but with only a plurality of Republicans?
Either traditional Republican then could secure the Republican base
for November. But Riordan always needed a solid majority of Republicans
(not just a plurality) on March 5. Only then, could this unorthodox
Republican secure the Republican base for November.
Riordan says
his advisers are "the best and the brightest." He has
absolute confidence in them for November. But what about March?
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