|
 an
Richard Riordan still win Tuesday's Republican primary in California?
Riordan's opponents
are Secretary of State Bill Jones and businessman Bill Simon. The
winner faces the vulnerable incumbent, Democrat Gov. Gray Davis.
Gray Davis
saw Riordan as his likely opponent. So Davis spent $6-$7 million
on TV spots trashing Riordan. Davis wanted to weaken Riordan for
November. Riordan could have withstood the attack if he had
never cultivated a Republican base. He needed to tell conservatives
he valued them. Instead, he confronted and insulted them. So, there
were no wagons to circle him.
In fact, Riordan
easily could have turned the Davis attacks to his advantage. In
January, Riordan needed to enlist the RNC Chair, California Republican
party chair, and his congressional endorsers. He needed third-party
credible Republicans to imply it's a Davis-Riordan race. Riordan
needed them to accuse Gray Davis of dirty tricks. Riordan could
have gone on the offensive, with top Republicans attacking Davis
for trying to pick his Republican opponent.
How did the
Riordan campaign's incompetence affect Davis? He escalated his objective
beyond weakening Riordan for November. Davis decided to defeat Riordan
in March.
In another
election for governor, George Christopher was the mayor of San Francisco.
Democrat Gov. Edmund G. "Pat" Brown thought Christopher
would be his strongest Republican opponent. Brown hoped novice candidate
Ronald Reagan would win the 1966 Republican primary. Be careful
what you hope for.
In this election,
Riordan is the former mayor of Los Angeles. Democrat Gov. Gray Davis
thought Riordan would be his strongest Republican opponent. Davis
hoped novice candidate Bill Simon would win this 2002 Republican
primary.
In 1990, Dianne
Feinstein was the former mayor of San Francisco. She ran for governor
in the Democrat primary. Opponent John van Kamp was widely expected
to win the primary. What happened? Feinstein's signature TV spot
made history by single-handedly electing her. It opened with her
dramatic reaction to the assassination of SF County Supervisor Harvey
Milk. (Feinstein won the primary, but lost in November to U.S. Senator
Pete Wilson, who became governor.)
This year,
Bill Simon's signature Rudy spot put Simon on the map. Without 9/11,
there would have been no Rudy factor for Simon. The Rudy spot produced
immediate poll gains, but Simon still hesitated to buy more TV time.
Then, the Davis attack ads increased Riordan's negatives. Simon
incurred no backlash, since Davis (not Simon) attacked Riordan.
Meanwhile,
Riordan continued to alienate Republicans. The Sacramento Bee's
Dan Walters wrote that "Richard Riordan's public disdain for
conservatives coalesced support for the neophyte politician"
(Simon). Anyway, Simon finally was dragged kicking and screaming
into increasing his ad buy. He even criticized Riordan on issues.
Riordan is
behind in all private tracking polls, including his own. But he
pulled out all the stops. "After trying to be Mr. Goody-Good
Shoes," Riordan says of Simon, " he started to paint me
as things I'm not." Riordan even attacked Simon for his inherited
wealth.
Simon barely
established his ID and image. So, as the new kid on the block, he
could have been taken down...earlier. Riordan's cocky campaign
"strategists" never did opposition research on Simon.
Newspapers revealed that SKS-Simon, a joint venture of Simon and
a developer, gave $95,000 to a campaign to reelect Willie Brown.
Imagine if Riordan's inept campaign had attacked Simon weeks ago.
The Riordan
ads are late. Simon now gets mountains of favorable press. Simon's
the story and acts like a winner. But Simon faces new scrutiny and
much more if he wins tomorrow.
Riordan acts
like a loser. Riordan says he has lost all respect for Simon and
on Friday called him an "ultra-ultra conservative" and
a "sanctimonious hypocrite" who wears his "religion
on his lapel." Riordan also said Simon is "just too extreme
to be elected governor."
Tortoise Bill
Jones could have exploited the Riordan-Simon negativity to win.
But Jones "targeted" his TV buy. Translation: He has no
money. He bought time only last week, and in small media markets,
only limited cable in Los Angeles and Bay area media markets. He
sent some mailings, rarely a factor in a statewide race. Without
$2 million for TV, Jones is not a factor.
Will Jones
take enough votes from Simon to give Riordan victory? Probably not.
it's more likely that Simon could win big tomorrow.
Besides, what
would a limited Riordan plurality mean? The Jones and Simon vote
is anti-Riordan. Thus, Riordan would be in deep trouble for November.
In contrast,
a Simon plurality Tuesday is negotiable. The Riordan and Jones vote
is not anti-Simon. But would winner Simon realize that he, in fact,
did not win, but Riordan lost?
Only knowing
that truth, can Simon mount a serious effort against Davis.
|
