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 ill
Simon won a stunning victory yesterday. That's one election down,
one to go. Now, Simon runs against Gov. Gray Davis on November 5.
What will happen
in eight long months? Can Simon defeat vulnerable Democrat Davis?
But first,
consider this fast-moving Republican primary. It's now historic.
In early January, businessman Simon polled single digits. In the
end, he emerged with fully half (49%).
Not bad considering
only a plurality would win. It was possible because novice Simon
faced two major politicians (48%), and several lesser candidates
(3%).
Politician
#1 was Secretary of State Bill Jones. He was broke. Yet, he received
17%. With money, the credible Jones would have won.
Politician
#2 was former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. He spent $10 million.
Yet, he received 31%. With a campaign, the prominent Riordan would
have won.
How, then,
did conservative businessman Simon defeat Riordan (31%) by 18 points?
Simon received
about 1,000,000 votes, impressively equal to the sum of Riordan
(650,000) and Jones (350,000). It appears about 2.1 million Republicans
voted, or less than 40% of the state's 5.3 million Republicans.
That low turnout boosted Simon's margin from 10 or12 points to 18.
Recall early
January. Simon still was unable to commit in the two ways that matter.
First, would he write a big check to fund ad buys? He held his money
close. Second, would he engage Riordan on their differences? He
was clearly reluctant.
Last year,
Simon aides claimed a $50 million+ budget. That meant $20 million
for the primary.
Suddenly, the
election now was seven weeks away. Fuzzy math — show me the
money. Reporters realized the bluff. So they speculated about Simon's
future. Was his campaign a dress rehearsal? A trial run for Simon
to challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer in 2004?
But, beyond
Simon's control, dominos were in motion.
It was Riordan
mania last year. Establishment candidate Dick Riordan led by 40
points. He had high ID and soft support. But Riordan and his amateurs
misread the numbers.
There was talk
of clearing the field. Denials aside, Simon and Jones considered
their options. Simon considered lieutenant governor or attorney
general. Jones considered U.S. Congress.
Why stay in
the race against Riordan? Riordan had a big-city base and name ID,
fundraising ability and his own money, political endorsements and
a friendly media. Riordan said he was backed by President George
W. Bush.
But, then the dominos started to fall.
Domino #1.
Riordan's nonstarter campaign escalated to false starts. Riordan
could not provide a rationale for his candidacy. His early tours
get bad reviews. Riordan's blunders encourage Jones and Simon to
stay. Ironically, by late summer, 2001, Riordan himself has guaranteed
he has no free ride.
Domino #2.
9/11 transforms Rudy. His endorsement could have emphasized Simon's
Eastern roots, not so good.
Domino #3.
Riordan continues to skip due diligence. His campaign fails
(a) to resolve his negatives, or to (b) determine his opponent's
negatives. There is no campaign plan or strategy.
Domino #4.
Riordan assembles a makeshift campaign. It includes people who have
never worked on a campaign or never worked together. Riordan still
has no credible strategist who knows how to win this Republican
primary. If Al Haig were here, he'd ask, "Who's in charge?"
But most of Riordan's growing staff has one thing in common: they
buy into Riordan's pretension there is no primary. Dissenters are
discouraged.
Domino #5.
Riordan declares war on the Republican party. He tells Republicans
they seem anti-women, anti-minority. He is confrontational and divisive.
It's shock politics. Riordan eventually insults former Republican
Gov. George Deukmejian. Anxious Republicans wonder, is there anyone
else running? They are ripe, but no other Republican is on TV.
Dominio
#6. By late January, Rudy spot nicely introduces Simon. Voters
are volatile. Limited time buy spikes Simon poll numbers. Why does
Simon not camp at stations' doorsteps with cash? Real people want
to know.
Domino #7.
Democrat Gray Davis starts TV ads in Republican primary. He spends
$3 million for pro-Davis ads. He spends $7 million for hits on Riordan.
The attack ads use Republican issues against Riordan. In one ad,
Deukmejian says Riordan is unprincipled. That ad even hides Davis
sponsorship. What's the bottom line? Davis does what Simon would
not. Davis, not Simon, hikes Riordan negatives…among Republicans.
Domino #8.
Simon self-funds more TV ads. (In one ad, Simon says he would lower
state capital-gains tax. Who cares?)
Domino #9.
Riordan campaign does not mobilize Republicans against Davis.
Riordan stays on defensive, looking and acting like loser. By the
end, he compares Davis to Mussolini. News media spins momentum to
Simon.
Election
Night. Riordan concedes graciously. But Simon then misses the
top-of-the-hour spot for his victory speech. That's dramatic open-the-11PM
newscast. Also, this advice to candidate: Next time, thank precinct
workers at end. Start with your message.
P.S. What is
your message? (Hint: It's not supply-side economics.)
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