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remains uncertain whether someone as well-bred and polite as Simon
can become a junkyard dog." — Dan Walters, Sacramento
Bee
In other words,
is Bill Simon willing to slug it out with Gray Davis? That's what
veteran political reporter Walters wants to know.
Simon won an
extraordinary victory on Tuesday. The novice candidate defeated
Richard Riordan, the Republican establishment candidate. Frontrunner
Riordan had led by 40 points. Yet, Simon ended up winning by 18
points. No wonder national attention has focused on the conservative
businessman.
Sure, Simon
was lucky. Riordan's Republican primary campaign attacked Republicans!
However, Bill
Simon has proven an old saying. People who work hard are lucky.
For a year, Simon has cultivated the grassroots. Simon was ready
when lightning struck.
California
primary elections used to be in June. What's the impact of the three-month-earlier
March 5? The extended March-November is tougher on challengers.
That's because Davis can use his incumbency. The challenger must
rationalize his campaign schedule. And, how do you maintain voter
interest?
The longer
campaign costs more, and that gives Davis an advantage. Gray Davis
was virtually unopposed in his Democrat primary. But he spent $10
million anyway. That included about $7 million for attack ads against
Riordan.
Why? Riordan
had left himself wide open. So Davis wanted to define a weakened
Riordan, for November. But Davis ended up defeating Riordan, in
March. Davis did what Simon had to do. What Simon had refused to
do. Davis attack ads hit Riordan on Republican issues. The Davis
attack ads seemed Republican. In fact, their sponsorship was hidden.
The Simon campaign
tries to prove it won. Simon's campaign says the Davis ads didn't
matter, because Davis has no credibility among Republicans. Irrelevant
nonsense, because the compelling Davis-produced ads were 100% Republican,
even including former Republican Gov. George Deukmejian. Sure, Davis
paid for the ads, but, without apparent identification.
The Simon campaign
needs a strategy to defeat Davis. Get with it.
What about
money? Davis still has about $25 million, with more in the pipeline.
Simon's campaign is broke.
Sure, Simon
is wealthy. But he will not self-fund the campaign. That means he
must raise lots of money. That limits time for campaigning. Davis
benefits.
How does Simon
go the distance?
He obviously
must make Davis the issue.
Fortunately,
the affable Simon can uniquely battle Davis. That's because Simon
has a Jim Buckley-like quality. (Buckley was the sainted U.S. senator
from N.Y., 1971-1977). Simon smiles, even as he confronts.
Simon's challenge
is that he impresses. In other words, can Simon's campaign rise
to the candidate's level?
Bill Simon
is the perfect foil. He seems too polite to be a politician. And
campaigning has brought out his persona. But can Simon's campaign
match his class?
Is Simon himself
ready for the bumpy road ahead? Loser Dick Riordan had the rough
campaign. Ironically, winner Bill Simon did not.
How could Simon
go through a primary and remain untested under fire?
That's because
Riordan did not take Simon seriously. Davis does. Riordan's inept
campaign skipped opposition research. Davis already knows plenty
about Simon.
And Davis campaign
manager Garry South is the thug of California politics.
Davis already
makes Simon the issue. He says the state cannot be entrusted to
Simon. That Simon is inexperienced, has not voted, and has not paid
his dues. And he "helped run a savings and loan into the ground."
Fortunately,
Davis has a cookie-cutter campaign. For nearly two decades, he runs
similar TV spots. The script always includes this juxtaposition
— he "protects a woman's right to choose" and "favors
the death penalty." There's the usual stock footage. Davis
with women, Davis with cops. They are of different races, of course.
Davis also walks down hallways, he picks up a telephone in an office,
and he looks at file folders.
In sharp contrast,
Simon has a personality. But what's his script? In the primary,
Simon ads pushed a non-issue — cutting capital-gains taxes.
Fortunately, Simon looks sincere and he smiles. The copy didn't
seem to matter.
Remember Republicans
always campaigned against "tax-and-spend" Democrats. Davis
uses that formula, in reverse. Every Republican is a right-wing
extremist who is "opposed to a woman's right to choose."
This time,
it's worse. Davis says Simon is a "think tank conservative
out of touch with California voters." Simon served on the board
of the Heritage Foundation. Could it be that Bill Simon planning
to wreck Social Security?
A final note.
There's Arnold Schwarzeneggar. CNN's Judy Woodruff interviewed him
on Election Day. What did he mean, she asked, when he said a conservative
Republican could not defeat Davis? AHH-NULD said he was not talking
about Simon.
But if Simon
wins in 2002, he'll run for reelection in 2006. What, then, will
the Terminator run for?
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