California Dreaming
The GOP lineup.

By Arnold Steinberg, a California political strategist
January 24, 2002 9:00 a.m.

alifornia's Governor Gray Davis is vulnerable. But will he lose to a Republican?

Absent a political earthquake, the Republican primary in California holds no suspense. Republicans on March 5 will nominate Richard J. Riordan, former mayor of Los Angeles. Yet, on November 5, Riordan could (a) fail to hold the Republican base, and (b) fail to attract the 2002 equivalent of Reagan Democrats. And that duality translates to, well, a political earthquake for Republicans. (Such an earthquake being defined thus: Vulnerable Democrat [as in Davis] handily defeats high-expectations Republican [as in Riordan].)

The seismic effects could extend to the Bush White House, which initially, if impetuously, nurtured the Riordan candidacy — and which now has second thoughts. There is unease about Riordan's direction. The new hands-off policy of benign neglect prefers to let nature take its course.

Last night's Republican debate (the first of three), at San Jose State University, was uneventful. This is good news for the frontrunner, who is paradoxically both well ahead and extremely vulnerable. Riordan enjoys high visibility as the leader of the nation's second-largest city (which dominates the nation's second-largest media market). Perhaps 45 percent of Republicans are reached by the signals of Los Angeles television and radio. His soft support cannot be eroded without serious competition.

Dick Riordan's opponents are the two Bills. California secretary of state Bill Jones is a moderate conservative, in the mold of former governor George Deukmejian (Jones's honorary chairman). Businessman Bill Simon is an issues conservative, in the mold of National Review. Jones has the will, and Simon has the money, to engage Riordan. But neither has both.

Riordan (at 40 percent) made no egregious blunders at the debate Tuesday night. Neither Bill (Jones at 14 percent, Simon at 8 percent) managed to hit the necessary home run or produce the necessary sound bite to edge the other out of the race. Simon needed to go beyond his friendship with Riordan to confront him on the major issues that separate them. Jones needed to go beyond parochial Republicanism to engage Riordan on issues.

But the press, asleep, failed to notice two aberrations as Riordan strained to avoid provoking the party base. After months of obsessing about empowering women to have abortions, he suddenly announced that personally, he opposes abortion. After months of proclaiming inclusiveness for women, minorities, and gays, he suddenly dropped gays. In the end, Riordan will satisfy no one — except possibly his nervous advisers.

California Republicans are pragmatic on social issues but unforgiving on other matters — for instance, Riordan's lack of enthusiasm for the widely venerated Proposition 13, which limits property taxes. But the Jones attack is insufficiently focused, the Simon attack absent. Unless matters change, the as-yet-embryonic anti-Riordan vote will have no chance to grow.