Show Me the Money
Bill Simon makes gains in California.

By Arnold Steinberg, a California political strategist
February 4, 2002 1:45 p.m.

onservative businessman Bill Simon has made dramatic gains in his campaign to secure the Republican nomination for governor. Simon, a board member of Heritage Foundation who is supported by many movement conservatives, has run a suspiciously low-key campaign. He and Secretary of State Jones have been scrambling against the dominant front-runner, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard J. Riordan. The winner of the March primary will face Gray Davis in November.

The Field poll shows, among more likely voters, Riordan at 46%, and Jones and Simon at 13%. According to Field, Riordan has remained constant for four months. It's good news for Riordan because he remains solidly ahead. It's also bad news for Riordan, because his campaigning and advertising appear irrelevant. Meanwhile, novice Simon has jumped from the single-digit 5 to the double-digit 13.

But more encouraging for Simon is the Los Angeles Times poll which shows, among more likely voters, Riordan 34%, Simon 20%, and Jones 13%. Using a controversial simulation for a very low turnout, the Times then puts Riordan at 26%, Simon at 21%, and Jones at 14%. While knowledgeable pundits are skeptical of the poll's number crunching, you would expect the wealthy Simon to get his checkbook out. No wonder political reporters are saying to Simon, "If you're serious, show me the money."

But the issues-and-ideas conservative has bought only modest advertising, mainly in the smaller cities. Outside the costly Los Angeles media market. L.A. is where Riordan is well known. But if Simon's limited advertising (with Rudy G's endorsement) produced dramatic gains, what might a serious campaign achieve? We may never know.

Had Simon commenced major TV on January 2, it might now be a Riordan-Simon race. Instead, it remains a three-way race. Why? The underfunded Jones has yet to buy TV time. Simon's gains show the volatility of the undecided voters. So, once Jones antes up, he can move quickly, too.

That makes it hard for an anti-Riordan vote to materialize. A three-way race has a different dynamic, because there is no two-way action/reaction with Riordan, no two-way debates with Riordan, no two-way press coverage. It's murky three-way. What if a limited anti-Riordan vote still develops? It would be split between Simon and Jones, yielding Riordan a plurality.

Jones pins his hopes on these trends: (a) Simon still does not open his wallet. (b) Riordan still makes mistakes. Yet, Simon remains on the ballot. Riordan remains dominant.

That's why Democrat governor Gray Davis assumes he will face Riordan. Davis, who has $30 million banked, is already spending millions attacking Riordan. The main Davis 30-second spot challenges Riordan as untrustworthy. It's a single-issue ad, on abortion. Riordan is attacked for his past: (a) Supporting for the Supreme Court Robert Bork, who would overturn Roe. (b) Saying in a cable interview that abortion is murder. (c) Funding pro-life groups. Riordan's dilemma is his past failure to rationalize his pro-choice position. Moreover, his obsession with the counterculture has made him not pro-choice, but pro-abortion. In the California version of "When did you stop beating your wife?" Riordan is daily asked, "When did you stop believing that abortion as murder?