California Dreaming
The final debate.

By Arnold Steinberg, California political consultant
February 14, 2002 9:45 a.m.

ill Jones is not giving any valentines to Richard Riordan. That was apparent Wednesday night at California State University at Long Beach. It was the third and final debate among the Republican candidates for governor.

Secretary of State Bill Jones and businessman Bill Simon (the two Bills) oppose Riordan for the Republican nomination. The winner of the March 5 primary will oppose the vulnerable Gray Davis.

None of the candidates excelled. But frontrunner Riordan may have won this debate. Jones and Simon both made telling points, but at times Jones seemed personal. And at times, Simon seemed tentative.

Consider the previous (second) debate last weekend at the Republican state convention. There, in San Jose, Simon finally said he differed with Riordan. In non-sequitur reply, Riordan noted they attended the same parish. Then, he reprimanded Simon. Now, at this final debate, Simon almost deferred to Riordan.

The media ask — how much does Riordan offend Republicans on issues like abortion, gays, guns, quotas, the death penalty, immigration? In fact, many pragmatic Republicans might tolerate Riordan's idiosyncratic views on social issues. Yet, on taxes, Republicans can be unforgiving. Too bad Simon didn't figure that out earlier.

The Simon campaign has astonished observers. Simon did not advertise early, when there was no media clutter. That's when he needed to increase his I.D. beyond placebo levels. Now, Simon spends more, to get himself known and also to attack Riordan. It's difficult to do both, simultaneously.

Bill Jones has a track record of opposing Gray Davis and his policies. Jones has less baggage than Riordan. He has a solid reformist portfolio as secretary of state. Thus, Jones has potential for against Davis. But the Bush high command and its donors have ostracized Jones. That's because Jones had switched from Bush to McCain after New Hampshire.

The Jones campaign seems curious. Jones wasted his time for months attacking Riordan on matters without traction. For example, this week and again Wednesday night, Jones attacked Riordan's wife, a liberal Democrat. She supported liberal Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend for governor of Maryland. Instead, Jones must focus on why Riordan (other than his I.D.) remains ahead in the primary. Why do conservatives like Congressmen Chris Cox, Dana Rohrabacher, and Ed Royce support Riordan? They believe Riordan has the best chance to defeat Davis.

But Davis's attacks on Riordan's flip-flops hint at the eventual Davis theme. Davis will make an issue of how Riordan campaigns. He will charge that Riordan does not know his own positions. Without ever mentioning Riordan's age, Davis plans to question Riordan's fitness.

Will the unfocused Riordan self-destruct against the disciplined Davis? And how can the Riordan ad hoc campaign match the Davis strategic campaign? How can Riordan make November a referendum on the unpopular Davis, when Riordan has made himself the issue?

Jones has failed to raise these key questions, much less answer them.

What's the wild card here? Will the Davis ads against Riordan actually help Riordan in the primary? Will Republicans thereby assume it's a Davis-Riordan race? Or will the Davis ads hurt Riordan's credibility, even in his own primary? Thus, will Republicans question whether Riordan actually can defeat Davis in November?

And will Simon's expected attack ads against Riordan play? Will they just hurt Riordan, or will they really help Simon? If they just hurt Riordan, would bystander Jones benefit?

How will Riordan respond? Riordan could increase his ad buys, funded by his personal fortune. And even the slow-moving Riordan campaign might run anti-Simon ads. Riordan would hit Simon for not voting in past elections. Will this volatility provide an opening for tortoise Bill Jones? Can he exploit such disarray, if he only has $1 million for TV ads?