Too Little, Too Late?
Why Riordan’s hurting.

By Arnold Steinberg, a California political strategist
February 27, 2002 11:05 a.m.

en Cory was elected California state controller in 1974. A Democrat, his winning slogan was "the man the oil companies fear the most."

A generation later, Richard Riordan's advisers chose Riordan's campaign slogan: "the Republican Gray Davis fears the most." But, read on.

Secretary of State Bill Jones and businessman Bill Simon are Riordan's Republican opponents in Tuesday's primary. Why does Riordan run no better against Davis than Jones or Simon? Jones has spent less than the Davis campaign's interest income. Simon has never run for office.

Truth is, Davis remains vulnerable. Republicans need a warm body. Someone who (a) has limited baggage, and (b) follows direction. But will the general election campaign against Davis be competent? In California, that would un-Republican!

To defeat Davis, the Republican nominee requires seasoned strategy and technical excellence. Davis must go negative to win. With his huge war chest and contingency plans, Davis attack ads on Simon are probably ready.

What happened to Riordan and his 30-point primary lead? Politically correct reporters originally focused only on Riordan's pluses. They failed to consider his legendary lack of discipline, coupled with a makeshift campaign of sycophants.

Even Davis bought into the pundit mythology — Riordan mania. Hence, Davis spent $6 million trashing Riordan in TV ads. Davis simply wanted to weaken Riordan for November. Davis could not anticipate the Riordan campaign's incompetence, notably its relentless repudiation of any possible Republican base. Consequently, not independently, the Davis attacks ads may cost Riordan the primary.

Riordan needs a solid majority Tuesday, not a weak plurality. It would require brilliance to rehabilitate Riordan for November.

It's the Davis ads, stupid. That's what Riordan's campaign wants you to believe. That Gray Davis interfered in the Republican primary.

Actually, Riordan's campaign left itself wide open. Riordan never defined himself. So, Davis did it for him.

Abruptly, Riordan now moves right. Either (a) he's too late for the primary, or (b) he seems expedient for the general.

Riordan fights a two-front war against Simon and Davis.

He now criticizes Simon for registering independent in New York, and for not voting in New Jersey. But Riordan may lack the credibility for the late attacks.

Riordan now accuses Davis of trying to "kidnap the Republican primary." Last month, that attack would have worked marvelously, producing a Republican backlash for Riordan. But Riordan's campaign typically runs four weeks late.

Simon now attacks Riordan for backing Clinton's 1993 tax hike and opposing Bush's 2001 tax cut. Simon implies Riordan would not be there for GWB in 2004.

The New York Times was just told by Riordan that a) he is the Bush candidate; b) "The White House is trying to keep their fingerprints off the campaign"; (pretty hard to do, since…) c) President Bush calls to monitor the campaign.

And what a campaign it is! The Los Angeles Times just reported on Warren Beatty and Hollywood anti-Bushies. The article described spouse Nancy Daly Riordan as "a Democratic Party rainmaker."

Last year, Dick Riordan followed different drummers. Democrat consultant Friend of Dick (FOD) Clint Reilly announced he was campaign co-chair. Republican Dan Schnur, former communications director for John McCain and Pete Wilson, advised Riordan. Then, Schnur accepted early retirement as a FOD. Riordan settled on former Gov. Pete Wilson-recommended Don Sipple as Riordan campaign chief architect. Sipple did Wilson's TV commercials. Sipple's Riordan spots never mentioned the word Republican. One Sipple spot even glimpsed Bill Clinton to further affront the Rep base. Riordan elevated Sipple with a second hat, chief strategist.

If Riordan were a plaintiff's attorney, he could sue his campaign for malpractice. His advisers' defense: "You made us do it." But why, for example, did they schedule Riordan at a dinner to honor Barbara Lee for opposing President Bush's war on terrorism? A dinner that Vietnam-vet Gray Davis turned down.

It's no wonder that Simon edges out Riordan in a half dozen turnout-adjusted polls, including four private and two public (Los Angeles Times, Field). Only Riordan's tracking poll shows him ahead.