Primary Day
What Riordan did wrong.

By Arnold Steinberg, a California political consultant
March 5, 2002 8:20 a.m.

eople are not seeing the real Dick Riordan," Richard Riordan said a couple of days ago. "I've been a staunch conservative."

Evidently Riordan kept this secret from everyone.

That must explain Riordan's odd message in the Republican primary for governor. Riordan's campaign preached inclusiveness, except for Republicans. His political operation tried to build a coalition without a base.

On just about every issue, he moved further away from the Republican base: gays, guns, quotas, taxes, immigration, crime, and more. What about Riordan's in-your-face preaching to Republicans? Are they anti-women and anti-minority?

Was Riordan pro-choice? He seemed pro-abortion. At times he talked of nothing else.

Riordan said Republicans did not respect differences. But Riordan's own campaign seemed intolerant.

At last month's Republican state convention, former Republican Gov. George Deukmejian reiterated his opposition to Riordan, even against Democrat Gov. Gray Davis. A reporter-panelist asked Riordan at the ensuing candidate debate: What did Riordan think about Deukmejian not supporting him? This was an obvious question to everyone, except, evidently, Riordan strategists. Don't they brief their candidate?

Riordan's insult of icon Deukmejian marked a turning point.

Moreover, Riordan's political operation simply lacked Republican outreach. Riordan needed to say to Republicans, "Hello, how are you? I want your support. Would you provide advice if I'm elected governor?"

Riordan's credentials as a Republican were regularly debated. But Riordan chief strategist Don Sipple and Riordan's campaign ads avoided the "R" word. Sipple had wide latitude in running the campaign and oddly didn't highlight any of the candidate's Republican accomplishments. Riordan had helped lead campaigns against liberal Supreme Court Justice Rose Bird, for term limits in Los Angeles, and against bilingual education. Why were these just footnotes in Riordan's campaign?

What was the campaign's raw meat for Republicans? Riordan ads talked about zero-based budgeting.

So, do you blame Riordan's top people, who now bad-mouth each other and the candidate? Or do you blame the candidate, who personally recruited the top people?

The Last Leg
At the campaign's opening last year, staunch Riordan supporter Arnold Schwarzneggar introduced Riordan. Yesterday, the actor again warmed-up the crowd. He wants Riordan to serve one term as governor, then pump for the Terminator in 2006. (In the interim, Schwarzneggar is increasing his political visibility. He has already spent $1 million to put an after-school programs measure on the November ballot.)

What's the good news for Riordan? His most recent ads finally are more focused. What's the bad news? The election is today.

While Simon looks and acts like a winner, Riordan looks and sounds increasingly desperate. Yesterday, Riordan compared Davis to Mussolini. He said Davis is gloating about hijacking the Republican primary, in the same way that Mussolini bragged about killing his enemies.

Davis had started the attack ads against Riordan in January. That's when Riordan needed to rally Republican leaders against Davis. Not now, not with Mussolini.

Davis responded yesterday that Riordan messed up his own primary. Davis put it this way: Riordan admitted he made a mistake by starting the general election too soon. Republican voters were asking, "What about us?"

The Davis attack ads had skillfully used Republican themes and issues. The most recent ad buried its Davis sponsorship. It even highlighted words from Republican Deukmejian, who charged Riordan is unprincipled.

What Happened?
Davis originally had only wanted to weaken Riordan for November. But Riordan had alienated Republicans. So Davis ended up defeating Riordan in his own primary.

What happened to Riordan's once-40 point primary lead? It was based mainly on name ID. A fact not readily apparent to Riordan's consultants. How much did Riordan's camp spend on focus groups and polls? Nearly a half million dollars. Still, Riordan's strategists not only ignored the Republican primary. They were the last to know they were in trouble.

It may be the only $10 million campaign in history without opposition research. Until the last ten days, Riordan gave Simon a free ride. Who uncovered Simon's Republican negatives? Newspapers discovered Simon had not registered to vote in New Jersey, was a registered independent in New York, and had failed to vote in many California elections. Newspapers discovered a Simon-affiliated company contributed $90,000 to a Willie Brown committee. (Former liberal California State Assembly Speaker Willie Brown is mayor of San Francisco.)

Riordan was always heavily favored to win today's Republican primary against the two Republican Bills. But Secretary of State Bill Jones, who lacked money, is not a factor today. Businessman Bill Simon, who lacked the will, was not supposed to be a factor.

But when Davis attack ads raised doubts about Riordan, the Riordan campaign failed to adapt. Finally, Simon wrote a big check to increase his ad buy.

Simon still airs Rudy endorsement ads. Why would former NYC Mayor Rudy intervene against former LA Mayor Riordan? Did then-U.S. Senate candidate Guiliani ask Riordan for help? Did Riordan decline, saying he was too close to the Clintons?

Watch Simon most likely defeat Riordan handily today.