Can Simon Do It?
Can Bill Simon’s campaign rise to the candidate’s level?

By Arnold Steinberg, California political consultant
March 7, 2002 9:05 a.m.

t remains uncertain whether someone as well-bred and polite as Simon can become a junkyard dog." — Dan Walters, Sacramento Bee

In other words, is Bill Simon willing to slug it out with Gray Davis? That's what veteran political reporter Walters wants to know.

Simon won an extraordinary victory on Tuesday. The novice candidate defeated Richard Riordan, the Republican establishment candidate. Frontrunner Riordan had led by 40 points. Yet, Simon ended up winning by 18 points. No wonder national attention has focused on the conservative businessman.

Sure, Simon was lucky. Riordan's Republican primary campaign attacked Republicans!

However, Bill Simon has proven an old saying. People who work hard are lucky. For a year, Simon has cultivated the grassroots. Simon was ready when lightning struck.

California primary elections used to be in June. What's the impact of the three-month-earlier March 5? The extended March-November is tougher on challengers. That's because Davis can use his incumbency. The challenger must rationalize his campaign schedule. And, how do you maintain voter interest?

The longer campaign costs more, and that gives Davis an advantage. Gray Davis was virtually unopposed in his Democrat primary. But he spent $10 million anyway. That included about $7 million for attack ads against Riordan.

Why? Riordan had left himself wide open. So Davis wanted to define a weakened Riordan, for November. But Davis ended up defeating Riordan, in March. Davis did what Simon had to do. What Simon had refused to do. Davis attack ads hit Riordan on Republican issues. The Davis attack ads seemed Republican. In fact, their sponsorship was hidden.

The Simon campaign tries to prove it won. Simon's campaign says the Davis ads didn't matter, because Davis has no credibility among Republicans. Irrelevant nonsense, because the compelling Davis-produced ads were 100% Republican, even including former Republican Gov. George Deukmejian. Sure, Davis paid for the ads, but, without apparent identification.

The Simon campaign needs a strategy to defeat Davis. Get with it.

What about money? Davis still has about $25 million, with more in the pipeline. Simon's campaign is broke.

Sure, Simon is wealthy. But he will not self-fund the campaign. That means he must raise lots of money. That limits time for campaigning. Davis benefits.

How does Simon go the distance?

He obviously must make Davis the issue.

Fortunately, the affable Simon can uniquely battle Davis. That's because Simon has a Jim Buckley-like quality. (Buckley was the sainted U.S. senator from N.Y., 1971-1977). Simon smiles, even as he confronts.

Simon's challenge is that he impresses. In other words, can Simon's campaign rise to the candidate's level?

Bill Simon is the perfect foil. He seems too polite to be a politician. And campaigning has brought out his persona. But can Simon's campaign match his class?

Is Simon himself ready for the bumpy road ahead? Loser Dick Riordan had the rough campaign. Ironically, winner Bill Simon did not.

How could Simon go through a primary and remain untested under fire?

That's because Riordan did not take Simon seriously. Davis does. Riordan's inept campaign skipped opposition research. Davis already knows plenty about Simon.

And Davis campaign manager Garry South is the thug of California politics.

Davis already makes Simon the issue. He says the state cannot be entrusted to Simon. That Simon is inexperienced, has not voted, and has not paid his dues. And he "helped run a savings and loan into the ground."

Fortunately, Davis has a cookie-cutter campaign. For nearly two decades, he runs similar TV spots. The script always includes this juxtaposition — he "protects a woman's right to choose" and "favors the death penalty." There's the usual stock footage. Davis with women, Davis with cops. They are of different races, of course. Davis also walks down hallways, he picks up a telephone in an office, and he looks at file folders.

In sharp contrast, Simon has a personality. But what's his script? In the primary, Simon ads pushed a non-issue — cutting capital-gains taxes. Fortunately, Simon looks sincere and he smiles. The copy didn't seem to matter.

Remember Republicans always campaigned against "tax-and-spend" Democrats. Davis uses that formula, in reverse. Every Republican is a right-wing extremist who is "opposed to a woman's right to choose."

This time, it's worse. Davis says Simon is a "think tank conservative out of touch with California voters." Simon served on the board of the Heritage Foundation. Could it be that Bill Simon planning to wreck Social Security?

A final note. There's Arnold Schwarzeneggar. CNN's Judy Woodruff interviewed him on Election Day. What did he mean, she asked, when he said a conservative Republican could not defeat Davis? AHH-NULD said he was not talking about Simon.

But if Simon wins in 2002, he'll run for reelection in 2006. What, then, will the Terminator run for?