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John
Fund, member of the Wall Street Journal editorial board
The apparent
defection of GOP Senator Jim Jeffords and the
resulting
shift in majority control to Democrats proves there was a reason
that both National Review and the Wall Street Journal
called on Sen. Strom Thurmond to gracefully retire from the Senate
in 1998 after a Democrat was elected governor of South Carolina.
Knowing that a Democratic governor would from then on appoint any
successor to Senator Thurmond, the Journal editorialized:
"Republicans should recognize that they can ill afford to lose
any strength given that in 2000 they will have five more Senate
seats to defend than Democrats will have at risk... It is time for
Senator Thurmond to consider the example of Newt Gingrich in realizing
the moment has come to give his successors an opportunity to carry
the country's politics onward."
Senate sources
say that the apparent decision of GOP Senator Jim Jeffords to become
an independent and tilt control of the Senate to Democrats had far
more to do with Strom Thurmond's health than with his supposed estrangement
from conservatives in his party or perceived slights by the White
House. The actuarial tables indicate that a man of Sen. Thurmond's
advanced years (98) has only a 50-50 chance of living until his
current term expires in January 2003. Senator Jeffords no doubt
reasoned that the chances that the Democrats would take over the
Senate between now and then were high. If he broke the Senate's
partisan tie now, he would avoid becoming part of a new GOP minority
and cut himself the best possible deal. Apparently, he has been
offered chairmanship of the Senate Environment Committee and speculation
is running rampant on what other goodies are in the gift basket
that Tom Daschle is preparing. Sen. Jeffords is also apparently
willing to take whatever revenge the White House will dish out.
He knows that George W. Bush is no Lyndon Johnson, who had a real
mean streak and far more ability to punish errant senators.
There is much
irony in Sen. Daschle ascending to the post of majority leader.
He was elected to the Senate in 1986, and quickly became a protégé
of George Mitchell, the most partisan majority leader of the last
century. Mitchell delighted in throwing sand into the gears of George
Bush's administration, and personally used a filibuster to block
President Bush's capital-gains tax cut. Now his equally partisan
protégé, Tom Daschle, will have the opportunity to
bedevil a new president named Bush. Let's hope the younger, tougher,
more conservative George W. has better luck maneuvering around a
fiercely partisan Democratic Senate than his father did.
Marshall
Wittmann, fellow, the
Hudson
Institute
Not only is
the honeymoon over, but now President Bush has a major divorce on
his hands.
The defection
of Senator Jeffords is the result of two interrelated factors —
White House hubris and the absence of basic math skills. Here's
the deal — the Senate is divided 50-50. One senator can tell the
majority leader the following: "Tomorrow I'll still be a chairman
and you will be minority leader."
Although the
administration is touting their education program, they must have
been employing new math because they appeared to be oblivious to
this one-vote difference. With all of the arrogance of a knuckle-headed
schoolyard bully, the White House refused to invite Jeffords to
a ceremony honoring a Vermont teacher and threatened the coveted
milk compact.
So, as a result
of this Marx-brothers "hardball," Jeffords took his glove
and joined the other team. This is the major leagues, not t-ball
on the South Lawn. Keep in mind that Ronald Reagan never suffered
any Republican defections. Bring me some guys who can play this
game!
Based upon
performance, there should be an opening for Republican minority
leader. I'd put my money on the other Ole Miss grad — at least he
looks like a credible future majority leader.
Finally, don't
rule out further defections ...
Michael Catanzaro, reporter for the “Evans-Novak
Political Report”
The party defection
of liberal Sen. Jim Jeffords means Democrats will have outright
control of the Senate. That raises the stakes considerably for Republicans
in next year's elections.
Before the
Jeffords switch, Democrats held a slight advantage; now their position
is undoubtedly stronger. Republicans have to win two seats to regain
control, in addition to holding on to vulnerable incumbents in Arkansas,
New Hampshire, and Oregon. And if Sen. Strom Thurmond fails to serve
out his full term, the bar will be raised even higher (the legal
fate of Sen. Robert Torricelli also could change the balance of
power).
Of course,
Republicans have potential opportunities in Georgia, Montana, and
South Dakota, states Bush won handily. But the party has not secured
top tier candidates in those races. With Democrats in power, high-profile
Republican candidates resisting Senate campaigns will undoubtedly
face enormous pressure to run.
Rep. John Thune
(R., S.D.) wants to run for governor, a race he could easily win,
but he will probably get another call from President Bush to challenge
Sen. Tim Johnson. Also, former Montana Governor Marc Racicot, now
a lawyer in Washington, has ruled out challenging Sen. Max Baucus.
Recent polling shows Racicot would be strongly favored to defeat
him.
If Republicans
don't win in 2002, Bush will have to show his leadership mettle
in dealing with Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.
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