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Andrew
J. Bacevich, professor of International Relations, Boston
University
I suspect that
it will have little impact. Most Americans and most of our friends
abroad have long since accepted the U. S. government's claim that
bin Laden masterminded the attack. We don't need further proof of
the man's evil or the need to eliminate him as a threat to the United
States and other nations. On the other hand, those who found September
11 cause for celebration will not see the tape as reason to alter
their views. They hate America, they blame their plight (whatever
it happens to be) on America, and because they believe Americans
capable of anything, they'll probably convince themselves that the
tape is a fabrication. If the tape has any significance at all,
it is as one more piece of evidence challenging us to think more
deeply about the relationship between Islam and political violence.
Blanket condemnation will not do — but neither is it possible
to pretend that no relationship exists.
Victor
Davis Hanson,
an NRO contributor & author, most recently, of Carnage
and Culture: Landmark Battles in the Rise of Western Power
Militarily
and politically the tape changes nothing. Bin Laden's mythic universe
of the prophet, dreams, seers, and suicide fanatics will continue
to meet B-52s and Special Forces, as he does his worst against our
best. For the gullible in our country and the frenzied in the Islamic
world, the video reminds us all that America is in a struggle to
the death with medievalism cloaked in nice furniture and Western
electronic gadgetry. The schizophrenic Arab street may find resonance
at home with bin Laden's boasting — despite his snickering
over the naiveté of his own doomed death squads — while
in embarrassment railing for foreign consumption about CIA plots,
Israeli doctoring of the tape, and other bizarre conspiratorial
machinations. Meanwhile, after this distraction of an afternoon,
the war to preserve civilization from barbarism goes on.
Aaron
Mannes, Washington-based writer & Middle East analyst
Many in the
Arab world will be shocked by the images of Osama bin Laden with
his guests and minions smiling and praising the terror attacks in
scenes where high-fives would not have been out of place. But it
will not change anyone's mind. For those who admire or excuse bin
Laden and despise America, reason and evidence are irrelevant.
The Egyptian
reaction to the American investigation of the 1990 EgyptAir Flight
990 crash is instructive. The Egyptian government could not accept
the National Transportation Safety Board's finding that pilot suicide
was the cause of the crash and wove elaborate and ludicrous theories
through the state-controlled media. Egyptian investigators posed
alternate possibilities, which were dutifully investigated. But
all indications continued to point to pilot suicide.
Ultimately,
Egyptian authorities claimed that it was culturally impossible for
a devout Muslim to commit suicide and that American ignorance of
Arab culture was distorting the investigation.
Similar tales
are already being spun throughout the Arab world about the bin Laden
video. This will not have immediate impact on the American campaign
against terrorism. But this unwillingness to face unpleasant truths
has a deleterious effect on the Arab world and contributes to its
stagnation.
Daniel
Pipes, director of the Philadelphia-based Middle
East Forum
"Many
Arabs Shrug At Bin Laden Video: Some Viewers Say Footage Was Doctored,"
runs the Washington Post headline. "Videotape Is Unlikely
to Change the Minds of Arabs Hostile to America" is the New
York Times's take. "Arab World Suspicious of Tape"
and "Indonesian militant group rejects bin Laden tape"
reports the Associated Press. Reuters finds the same — "Many
in Arab World Call Bin Laden Video a Fake."
Just as in
the aftermath of the September 11 atrocities, the Muslim world is
responding to an unpalatable reality by circumventing it through
a tissue of conspiracy theories. Once again, this reaction confirms
that until it shows a willingness to confront and deal with unpleasant
facts, the present mood of extremism, jihad, and conspiracism will
continue unabated, if not get worse.
In nearly fourteen
centuries of Islam, the Muslim world has probably never been in
so great a crisis as it is today. The bin Laden tape merely confirms
this tragic fact.
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