The Score: What the Jeffords Move Means
A symposium with John Fund, Marshall Wittmann, and Michael Catanzaro.

Compiled by Kathryn Jean Lopez
May 23, 2001 12:25 p.m.

John Fund, member of the Wall Street Journal editorial board

The apparent defection of GOP Senator Jim Jeffords and the resulting shift in majority control to Democrats proves there was a reason that both National Review and the Wall Street Journal called on Sen. Strom Thurmond to gracefully retire from the Senate in 1998 after a Democrat was elected governor of South Carolina. Knowing that a Democratic governor would from then on appoint any successor to Senator Thurmond, the Journal editorialized: "Republicans should recognize that they can ill afford to lose any strength given that in 2000 they will have five more Senate seats to defend than Democrats will have at risk... It is time for Senator Thurmond to consider the example of Newt Gingrich in realizing the moment has come to give his successors an opportunity to carry the country's politics onward."

Senate sources say that the apparent decision of GOP Senator Jim Jeffords to become an independent and tilt control of the Senate to Democrats had far more to do with Strom Thurmond's health than with his supposed estrangement from conservatives in his party or perceived slights by the White House. The actuarial tables indicate that a man of Sen. Thurmond's advanced years (98) has only a 50-50 chance of living until his current term expires in January 2003. Senator Jeffords no doubt reasoned that the chances that the Democrats would take over the Senate between now and then were high. If he broke the Senate's partisan tie now, he would avoid becoming part of a new GOP minority and cut himself the best possible deal. Apparently, he has been offered chairmanship of the Senate Environment Committee and speculation is running rampant on what other goodies are in the gift basket that Tom Daschle is preparing. Sen. Jeffords is also apparently willing to take whatever revenge the White House will dish out. He knows that George W. Bush is no Lyndon Johnson, who had a real mean streak and far more ability to punish errant senators.

There is much irony in Sen. Daschle ascending to the post of majority leader. He was elected to the Senate in 1986, and quickly became a protégé of George Mitchell, the most partisan majority leader of the last century. Mitchell delighted in throwing sand into the gears of George Bush's administration, and personally used a filibuster to block President Bush's capital-gains tax cut. Now his equally partisan protégé, Tom Daschle, will have the opportunity to bedevil a new president named Bush. Let's hope the younger, tougher, more conservative George W. has better luck maneuvering around a fiercely partisan Democratic Senate than his father did.

Marshall Wittmann, fellow, the Hudson Institute

Not only is the honeymoon over, but now President Bush has a major divorce on his hands.

The defection of Senator Jeffords is the result of two interrelated factors — White House hubris and the absence of basic math skills. Here's the deal — the Senate is divided 50-50. One senator can tell the majority leader the following: "Tomorrow I'll still be a chairman and you will be minority leader."

Although the administration is touting their education program, they must have been employing new math because they appeared to be oblivious to this one-vote difference. With all of the arrogance of a knuckle-headed schoolyard bully, the White House refused to invite Jeffords to a ceremony honoring a Vermont teacher and threatened the coveted milk compact.

So, as a result of this Marx-brothers "hardball," Jeffords took his glove and joined the other team. This is the major leagues, not t-ball on the South Lawn. Keep in mind that Ronald Reagan never suffered any Republican defections. Bring me some guys who can play this game!

Based upon performance, there should be an opening for Republican minority leader. I'd put my money on the other Ole Miss grad — at least he looks like a credible future majority leader.

Finally, don't rule out further defections ...

Michael Catanzaro, reporter for the “Evans-Novak Political Report”

The party defection of liberal Sen. Jim Jeffords means Democrats will have outright control of the Senate. That raises the stakes considerably for Republicans in next year's elections.

Before the Jeffords switch, Democrats held a slight advantage; now their position is undoubtedly stronger. Republicans have to win two seats to regain control, in addition to holding on to vulnerable incumbents in Arkansas, New Hampshire, and Oregon. And if Sen. Strom Thurmond fails to serve out his full term, the bar will be raised even higher (the legal fate of Sen. Robert Torricelli also could change the balance of power).

Of course, Republicans have potential opportunities in Georgia, Montana, and South Dakota, states Bush won handily. But the party has not secured top tier candidates in those races. With Democrats in power, high-profile Republican candidates resisting Senate campaigns will undoubtedly face enormous pressure to run.

Rep. John Thune (R., S.D.) wants to run for governor, a race he could easily win, but he will probably get another call from President Bush to challenge Sen. Tim Johnson. Also, former Montana Governor Marc Racicot, now a lawyer in Washington, has ruled out challenging Sen. Max Baucus. Recent polling shows Racicot would be strongly favored to defeat him.

If Republicans don't win in 2002, Bush will have to show his leadership mettle in dealing with Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.