The Screening
A symposium on the Osama bin Laden video.

Andrew J. Bacevich, professor of International Relations, Boston University

I suspect that it will have little impact. Most Americans and most of our friends abroad have long since accepted the U. S. government's claim that bin Laden masterminded the attack. We don't need further proof of the man's evil or the need to eliminate him as a threat to the United States and other nations. On the other hand, those who found September 11 cause for celebration will not see the tape as reason to alter their views. They hate America, they blame their plight (whatever it happens to be) on America, and because they believe Americans capable of anything, they'll probably convince themselves that the tape is a fabrication. If the tape has any significance at all, it is as one more piece of evidence challenging us to think more deeply about the relationship between Islam and political violence. Blanket condemnation will not do — but neither is it possible to pretend that no relationship exists.

Victor Davis Hanson, an NRO contributor & author, most recently, of Carnage and Culture: Landmark Battles in the Rise of Western Power

Militarily and politically the tape changes nothing. Bin Laden's mythic universe of the prophet, dreams, seers, and suicide fanatics will continue to meet B-52s and Special Forces, as he does his worst against our best. For the gullible in our country and the frenzied in the Islamic world, the video reminds us all that America is in a struggle to the death with medievalism cloaked in nice furniture and Western electronic gadgetry. The schizophrenic Arab street may find resonance at home with bin Laden's boasting — despite his snickering over the naiveté of his own doomed death squads — while in embarrassment railing for foreign consumption about CIA plots, Israeli doctoring of the tape, and other bizarre conspiratorial machinations. Meanwhile, after this distraction of an afternoon, the war to preserve civilization from barbarism goes on.

Aaron Mannes, Washington-based writer & Middle East analyst

Many in the Arab world will be shocked by the images of Osama bin Laden with his guests and minions smiling and praising the terror attacks in scenes where high-fives would not have been out of place. But it will not change anyone's mind. For those who admire or excuse bin Laden and despise America, reason and evidence are irrelevant.

The Egyptian reaction to the American investigation of the 1990 EgyptAir Flight 990 crash is instructive. The Egyptian government could not accept the National Transportation Safety Board's finding that pilot suicide was the cause of the crash and wove elaborate and ludicrous theories through the state-controlled media. Egyptian investigators posed alternate possibilities, which were dutifully investigated. But all indications continued to point to pilot suicide.

Ultimately, Egyptian authorities claimed that it was culturally impossible for a devout Muslim to commit suicide and that American ignorance of Arab culture was distorting the investigation.

Similar tales are already being spun throughout the Arab world about the bin Laden video. This will not have immediate impact on the American campaign against terrorism. But this unwillingness to face unpleasant truths has a deleterious effect on the Arab world and contributes to its stagnation.

Daniel Pipes, director of the Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum

"Many Arabs Shrug At Bin Laden Video: Some Viewers Say Footage Was Doctored," runs the Washington Post headline. "Videotape Is Unlikely to Change the Minds of Arabs Hostile to America" is the New York Times's take. "Arab World Suspicious of Tape" and "Indonesian militant group rejects bin Laden tape" reports the Associated Press. Reuters finds the same — "Many in Arab World Call Bin Laden Video a Fake."

Just as in the aftermath of the September 11 atrocities, the Muslim world is responding to an unpalatable reality by circumventing it through a tissue of conspiracy theories. Once again, this reaction confirms that until it shows a willingness to confront and deal with unpleasant facts, the present mood of extremism, jihad, and conspiracism will continue unabated, if not get worse.

In nearly fourteen centuries of Islam, the Muslim world has probably never been in so great a crisis as it is today. The bin Laden tape merely confirms this tragic fact.