The Long-Term War
Freedom’s no-choice options.

ubai — This amazing entrepot on the Gulf is an ideal place to sample regional — if not world — opinion. A subsistence smuggling and fishing port 30 years ago, Dubai has become a booming, bustling city-state, at once very cosmopolitan and very oriental.

With every Arab nationality plus Indian, Iranian, Pakistani, Filipino, British, Armenian, Greek, Russian, and uncounted others making up well over half of its 700,000 residents, Dubai today is home to a broad mix of trading, oil services, finance, and industry. Here, during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, residents and visitors can fast — or not. Alcohol is allowed, even advertised, all year long, although strictly prohibited in neighboring Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran.

Here Christians and Hindus worship freely, in churches and temples whose land has, in many instances, been provided by the ruling Maktoum family — in sharp contrast to Saudi Arabia and Iran, where clandestine meetings of infidels will result in worshippers being expelled from the country, if discovered by the religious police.

Dubai serves as a kind of safety valve for the region. As with Beirut before its descent into chaos in 1970, factions of all sorts come here to relax, plot with cohorts from different countries, or meet their antagonists on neutral ground. After radical ayatollahs captured Iran in 1979, it was from Dubai that everything from Pepsi syrup to Winston cigarettes was smuggled by sailing dhows to ports just across the Gulf, with caviar and Persian carpets exported in return. In Dubai, in short, virtually anything goes — including the free expression of political opinion.

A commercial trader from Palestine fervently expresses his frustration with both the Israeli and PLO regimes: "Yasser Arafat is as much the problem as Ariel Sharon. Nothing will be accomplished while he is in power." Does he have a solution for the Israeli-Palestinian dilemma? "The only chance is young leaders, who have not been corrupted by the frustrations of the past 20 years. The current leaders on both sides believe that a peaceful settlement does not serve their selfish political interests. Ehud Barak and Shimon Peres are partial exceptions, but Yitzak Rabin was the real fighter for peace, and his Israeli opponents assassinated him."

A Pakistani entrepreneur, while supporting the reformist regime of General Pervez Musharraf, worries that extremist elements inside and outside the government could still bring him down and "throw the country back to the abysmal state it was in, just two years ago."

A Saudi businessman from Riyadh, who formerly served as a government minister, wonders aloud if the Saudi Arabian regime can long continue its "schizophrenic balancing act" between the West (read: the United States, where more than 300,000 Saudis have studied) and its ultraconservative Wahhabi Muslim clerical partners. Indeed, many of the Wahhabi mullahs actively support, if not Osama bin Laden personally, at least the cause of violently expunging everything western from the Islamic countries of the Middle East — at the same time as the Saudi regime continues to support the war on terror, as diplomatically as possible.

"How long can this balancing act continue?" the Saudi senior, himself U.S.-educated, asks. "The house of Saud has been in power for 70 years, precisely because it has agreed with the Wahhabis to leave religious affairs to them, while they handle the politics. But religion and politics are becoming more and more mixed. Mullahs across the country are openly speaking in support of al Qaeda, and I know at least two dozen well-placed Saudis who have contributed financially to the organization.

"What is worse, schools and universities are emphasizing two things in their teaching: rote memorization of the Koran and a radical interpretation of the teachings of the prophet Mohammed. Then, when you learn that 15 of the 19 suicide bombers on September 11 were Saudi nationals, you must recognize that the revolution is underway in your midst. You ignore it at your political peril."

An extraordinarily broad worldview was exhibited by a retired senior Lebanese military officer. Trained in the United States as a young man, he eventually became director general of security during the tumultuous 1970s. In the trilingual (French-English-Arabic) dialect of educated Lebanese, he observed, "So far, the Americans have done the right things since September 11. You have applied force and prevailed. Now, you must capture 'Mullah' Omar (he's no more a trained Muslim cleric than I am) and bin Laden, and bring them to justice.

"I believe you will do so before the end of the year, but that cannot be the end. You must continue to show your commitment to ending terrorism, and that means setting up the circumstances that allow you to rid Baghdad and the world of Saddam Hussein, just as the Israelis are finally getting rid of Yasser Arafat.

"I know you will go after the small fish, in Somalia, perhaps Sudan, and elsewhere; but unless you eradicate Saddam, you will be seen not to want victory over terrorism, just vengeance for the atrocities of September 11. There may have been an argument for not taking him out in 1991. I believe your Pentagon planners were concerned that his removal would cause the southern part of Iraq, which is overwhelmingly Shiite Muslim, to defect to Iran. If this had happened, it could have created a single strong and radical power in Tehran and this would have been a major problem.

"Today, however, Iran is very weak, both internally and with its neighbors. The regime is widely hated by Iranians, and the prestige of Ayatollah Khomeini throughout Islam has not been approached by any of his successors.

"If the United States removes Saddam Hussein from power, you will see an end to terrorism for generations; if not, there will be a steady continuation of increasingly bad incidents as the terrorists seek to reclaim the disaster that has befallen them in Afghanistan."

Asked why the Sharon government would be dedicated to ending Arafat's leadership of the PLO, the retired Lebanese leader turned sarcastic. "I have known Arafat for more than 30 years. The man has been such a liar for so many years, he doesn't know himself when he is telling the truth. When I headed security in Beirut during the most difficult years, he was based there. We negotiated cease-fires — 32 of them — but every time we agreed on a cessation, he ran to the media and announced it, and there would be a terrible incident within a few hours.

"Finally, I said to him, 'This time, please don't announce it in advance, and maybe there will be quiet for a few days.' He looked at me as if I were mad and said, 'It won't do any good, and the media expect me to keep them informed.' In fact, we all knew his media announcements were signals to his fighters to get ready for another terrorist incident."

Virtually every observer, from virtually every political and ethnic orientation, echoed the old Lebanese soldier's crowning comment: "In this part of the world, we respect power and might above everything. The United States has it, and if you do not continue to use it effectively, we will think you do not have the will to win."

The single exception to this sentiment was a longtime Indian resident, a Hindu by religion. Curiously, he spoke with a vehemence exhibited by no Arab or other Muslim. "You people have no understanding how much the man in the street despises the United States. You come here and do business; when it suits you, you make war; then, you leave. First you make money and then you drop bombs. When it is over, you never take time to help the country you have destroyed, rebuild — unless of course they can pay for it, like Kuwait."

When asked what he thought about American food drops over Afghanistan since the inception of hostilities, and President Bush's pledge of an initial $350 million to aid in the country's reconstruction, he showed harsh skepticism: "The man in the street says the food drops were simply propaganda, and no one believes you'll actually provide real help when this is all over."

A devout intellectual, a mainstream Sunni Muslim, spoke feelingly about aid programs, with concerns that went far beyond food and rebuilding cities. Granting that, as ever, the United States was providing salutary emergency supplies to the Afghans, he noted, "This aid, together with Red Cross and United Nations assistance, should see the Afghan people through the winter, but you have a greater challenge: You must attack the root causes that lead so many people to such desperation that they become willing tools of terror."

A career educator from Iraq, he exhibited a refreshing and objective outlook: "The education system in this region, except in Lebanon, is abysmal. State schools are totally ineffective, and our religious schools, the madrassas, focus almost solely on memorization and interpretation of the Koran. No reading, no writing, no mathematics… no worldview. Indeed, a majority of the madrassa teachers are so radicalized, they teach their students to sympathize with — if not actively support — terror.

"There must be major emphasis on establishing a liberal education for all children, boys and girls. Although this is fundamental, it will only be accomplished if it is strongly supported by the United States or United Nations. We have not done it yet, and there is no sustained will to do so now.

"But that's not all: Young people need to be taught about the free market. Apart from the merchants in our bazaars, we have no established tradition of free enterprise. Industry and finance are in the hands of a privileged few, whether private or state-owned. Until we break this and show young people they can participate profitably in the economy, we will simply create more and more educated but economically frustrated citizens. We Muslims like large families, you know!

"We need programs like Grameen Bank in Bangladesh to provide start-up loans to entrepreneurs, and your own Ashoka to support innovative social activists."

The Iraqi educator gets my vote. Important as it is to use every force necessary to eradicate terrorists — whether headwaiters or heads of state — it is equally important to root out the seedbeds of terror. The passing of Osama bin Laden, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the elimination of terror cells wherever found — all are crucial for what must follow. School systems throughout the region need to be reconstructed; serious economic opportunity must be exemplified as well as taught. It is a matter of survival, for them and for us.