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California: The Education Battleground
Issues that could tip the presidential election.

By Arnold Steinberg, political strategist and author

he education issue will play a large role in California politics this year, because there are three ballot initiatives. Bush and Gore will be required to address these measures. And — unless Republicans develop a strategy (none yet!) — the teachers union will use the measures to help Gore, by increasing the turnout of public-school teachers and their fellow travelers. Moreover, they will spend their "soft money" ballot-measure dollars, amortized over a unified campaign to support two of the measures and oppose a third, to help Gore.

The first measure, sponsored by the California Teachers Association (CTA), would boost California's per-pupil spending to the national average. This measure is stupid, for the simple reason that it assumes money is the answer to the problems of education. Also, even Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, along with many Democrats in the State Legislature, fear its fiscal implications.

In the end, it may be defeated if it's seen as the most extreme of the three measures; in fact, the CTA would sacrifice it to defeat the third ballot measure (school choice).

The second measure is, essentially, a rerun of Proposition 26, a measure which barely failed in the March primary, due to the relatively older and conservative turnout. The March measure would have lowered the two-thirds voter requirement for passing local school bond measures to 51 percent. It's really an end-run around California's famous Proposition 13, the 1978 measure that limited property taxes. Proposition 13 reaffirmed a two-thirds requirement of voters to approve such local school bond measures, since money to pay the interest on bonds and repay principal requires a raise in property taxes. This measure is opposed principally by the venerable Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, which will be outspent by perhaps 20 to 1.

The measure — call it Proposition 26 Lite — would allow local school bonds to pass with a 55% vote; an ill-advised maneuver, since it's difficult to communicate why it should be 55% instead of two-thirds or, for that matter, 51%. Proposition 26 Lite also is slickly packaged as a fiscal accountability measure, which it is not. It's backed by Silicon Valley types who wrongly believe that giving more money to the education establishment will provide them with the domestic job pool of techies they now lack.

The third measure is a school-choice initiative promoted almost single-handedly — in a do-it-yourself campaign — by libertarian Silicon Valley entrepreneur Tim Draper. Draper, a political novice, has erred in allowing critics to describe his measure as "voucher" rather than "choice." Draper himself naively embraces the pejorative term, a favorite of teachers when they attack the idea of school choice. Draper’s measure is, polemically, not much better, and in some ways worse, than the 1993 school-choice measure that resulted in a humiliating defeat for its proponents.

It's the wrong year for this measure. Still, it might be saved from a major defeat, or conceivably win and even help Bush, if Draper would change his tactics. Otherwise, "vouchers" could become an albatross for George W.

Unless things change quickly, Californians will vote no on the CTA measure to raise per-pupil spending, yes to make bond measures easier, and no to "vouchers." With as little as $2.5 million for radio, the second measure could be defeated. And, with a campaign instead of a crusade, the school- choice measure might help, rather than hurt, George W.

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