10/23/00 3:40 p.m.
Formula 404
The coming Bush landslide.

By Joel C. Rosenberg, president and CEO of November Communications, Inc.

ut a fork in it. Gore's campaign is done.

The media's conventional wisdom is wrong. It won't be a late night on November 7th. It won't even be close. The hedging, bobbing, and weaving from the political punditry is mere psychological projection that Gore still has a chance. He doesn't.

• Swing voters and swing states are beginning to break for Bush.

• Voter turnout and intensity favor Bush.

• Internal divisions within the Gore campaign favor Bush.

• President Clinton's thinly veiled criticisms of the vice president's campaign in Friday's front-page New York Times bombshell only confirm what all but the most partisan political analysts would admit — there's trouble in River City and it starts with "G" and stands for "Gore."

• Bottom line: An electoral landslide for the Texas governor is shaping up. And with it will come a dramatic mandate for conservative-minded reform.

Two weeks and one day before the first election of the 21st century, here's how I predict it will play out:

Final Popular Vote Prediction
Bush — 51%
Gore — 43%
Nader — 5%
Buchanan — 1%

[* NOTE: Bill Clinton never received more than 49% of the vote.]

Final Electoral Vote Prediction
Bush will rack up at least 404 electoral college votes — far above the 270 needed to win — and this will include California in the mother of all political upsets.

[* NOTE: This could actually be a conservative prediction. Reagan won 489 electoral college votes in 1980 and Bush, Sr. won 426 in 1988. Clinton won 370 and 379 respectively in 1992 and 1996.]

Leading Political Indicators
People don't like Al Gore. They don't think he's honest. They don't think he's trustworthy. They think he'll say anything to win. They believe he reeks divisive, mean-spirited political partisanship. In a word, they think he's creepy. And they're right.

By sharp contrast, voters — and particularly swing voters — like Gov. Bush. They think he's honest, strong, and comfortable in his own skin. And as the Mideast crisis heats up, they prefer the Bush-Cheney-Powell team to Clinton-Gore-Albright.

At the same time, the Gore team keeps spinning, effectively, "Sure, people may not like Gore personally but he's got the right issues."

Nonsense, for two reasons.

First, a recent Zogby poll showed that on 23 of 25 specific issue positions, Americans favor Bush to Gore. That's because Americans in the 21st century lean center-right ideologically. They want less government and more personal freedom--and these are the themes Bush internalized and sharpened in the GOP primaries in response to the center-right campaign of Steve Forbes (in contrast to John McCain's center-left campaign: freedom to pay fewer taxes, freedom to choose personal retirement accounts, freedom to choose from a wide range of Medicare plans, freedom to use MSAs, freedom for inner-city parents to choose schools that work for their kids. And such themes have worked spectacularly.

Second, Americans believe the vice president takes positions based on politics, not principle. Indeed, to try to hold his liberal base (and woo back Nader votes) Gore has venomously attacked Republicans for positions he and/or his running mate used to hold (tax cuts, Social Security choice, school choice, restrictions on abortion, opposition to special rights for homosexuals, etc)--positions most Americans still favor and haven't flip-flopped on.

Thus, the latest polls:

Portrait of America
Bush — 46
Gore — 41
Newsweek
Bush — 48
Gore — 41
Zogby
Bush — 45
Gore — 41
Battleground
Bush — 44
Gore — 40
Gallup
Bush — 50
Gore — 41
ABC News
Bush — 48
Gore — 43

Where Bush Will Win 404 Electoral Votes
Again, most analysts say this race will be a squeaker. Not true.

Bush has strong leads in states with 188 electoral votes. He is tied or slightly ahead in states with roughly another 120 to 160 electoral votes. He's also rapidly gaining ground in California and is pouring an additional $8 million there on TV ads over the next two weeks. Even Gore's California campaign chief now worries publicly that Bush can win the Golden State. He not only can, I believe he will.

Here's your election night scorecard:

Bush Country — 188 Electoral Votes
Alabama — 9
Alaska — 3
Arizona — 8
Colorado — 8
Georgia — 13
Idaho — 4
Indiana — 12
Kansas — 6
Kentucky — 8
Louisiana — 9
Mississippi — 7
Montana — 3
Nebraska — 5
Nevada — 4
North Carolina — 14
North Dakota — 3
Oklahoma — 8
South Carolina — 8
South Dakota — 3
Texas — 32
Utah — 5
Virginia — 13
Wyoming — 3

Swing States Bush Will Carry — 122 Electoral Votes
Florida — 23 Missouri — 11 Minnesota — 10 Michigan — 18 Ohio — 21 New Mexico — 5 Pennsylvania — 23 Wisconsin — 11

Democrat States Bush Will Carry — 40 Electoral Votes
Arkansas — 6
Delaware — 3
Maine — 4
Tennessee — 11
Washington — 11
West Virginia — 5

Mother-of-All-Surprises — 54 Electoral Votes
California