11/29/00 3:40 p.m.
The Desert Chamberlain
Barak’s final days.

By Tevi Troy, a writer living in Washington

wo years ago, Israeli voters overwhelmingly rejected Benjamin Netanyahu's prickly personality and lack of progress on the peace front in favor of Ehud Barak, the piano-playing, Stanford-educated military man. Barak appeared capable of forging a peace agreement that could satisfy security-conscious Israelis, as well as keep his American backers and the Palestinians happy.

Barak has indeed differed from Netanyahu, but in a way that makes many Israeli wish for Bibi's return. Netanyahu made little progress in terms of peace agreements, but he provided Israel with security. Under Bibi, the suicide bombings that characterized the post-Rabin government of Shimon Peres ceased. Netanyahu made it clear that he would respond forcefully to Arab attacks, a strategy that made the streets safe, but expanding the Oslo peace agreement difficult.

Barak, in contrast, has shown far more willingness to make broad peace agreements, and as a result has been disastrous for Israeli security. Despite Netanyahu's faults, Israelis would surely rather return to the situation of 1997 than the constant violence of today. Recognizing this, the Knesset voted yesterday on five bills calling for early elections. Barak preemptively agreed to hold new elections, sounding a bit like DeNiro in front of the mirror in Taxi Driver: "I say to you, `You want elections?' I'm prepared." This bravado demonstrates that Barak remains oblivious to the reasons for his low standing in the polls, which show him trailing both Likud's Ariel Sharon and the Lazarus-like Netanyahu.

Barak seems destined for early retirement because he is the administrator of a failed policy, a fact made stark by the two-month long violence that shows no sign of abating. Like Neville Chamberlain before World War Two, Barak seems determined to try appeasing those who will not be appeased. Unsurprisingly, not since Chamberlain has a democratically elected leader controlled a government during such a spectacular repudiation of that government's policies.

Barak does not understand that the great promise of the Oslo accords was not peace but accountability. Oslo drew clear lines for Israelis and Palestinians, with the promise of some kind of consequence for violation of those lines. Seven years of Palestinian intransigence, of continuing hatred, of a military build up under the guise of creating the world's largest per capita police force, have shown that the Israelis draw lines, and the Palestinians cross them. And no one — not the Europeans, not the Americans, certainly not the U.N., and sometimes not even the Israelis — will hold the Palestinians accountable. Intifada II has recently shown Oslo to be a failure, but in reality it has been a failure all along.

Barak, of course does not see this, just as he fails to see that his actions have brought Israel to the current crisis. At Camp David, Barak offered Arafat far more than any Israeli politician had ever been willing to give, and far more than the Israeli public was willing to accept. Arafat responded by ignoring Barak's offer. After snubbing Barak, Arafat went on an Arab world tour to foment resistance to Israel. Then Arafat returned home to foment domestic resistance to Israel.

Intifada II has brought Arafat the fruits of his post-Camp David labors. Arafat activated the militants of the Palestinian street and is unwilling or unable — probably both — to reign them in. And the Arab world, fresh from receiving Arafat's guarantee that he will never concede on Jerusalem, is fully supportive of Arafat, even as Israel's allies waver. Egypt has just recalled its ambassador to Israel, imperiling two decades of a very cold peace between Cairo and Jerusalem.

Despite all of the evidence arrayed before him, Barak still seems to believe that he will find the magic formula that will convince Arafat to sign a deal with Israel. He is wrong, just as Chamberlain was wrong before him. And Barak is destined for a place on the wall of losers in Naked Gun 2 1/2's Blue Note, nestled between the photos of Michael Dukakis and Neville Chamberlain holding his black umbrella.