6/16/00 9:45 a.m.
Campaign 2000: A Deadlock at Halftime
Five months out, a look at the election.

By Ben Domenech, NRO contributing editor---------------btdome@wm.edu

ith election day less than five months away, several groups met in Washington this Thursday to discuss the critical races that will be in play until November. Organized by the Hotline, National Journal's daily rundown of political news, in association with the University of Virginia's Center for Governmental Studies and FreedomChannel.com, the conference provided a quick and informative overview of the state of play in campaign 2000.

"One of the key factors this election year is . . . how you come across in the television age," said UVA's Larry Sabato. "I won't say Bush is extremely impressive, but he's certainly a lot more appealing than that strange amalgam of wood and plastic that is Al Gore."

Sabato pointed out that coattails are likely to be a significant factor in close congressional races across the country, many of which still remain too close to call. Hotline's Craig Crawford pointed to Michigan's Senate race, between Spence Abraham and Debbie Stabenow, as a key race for Democrats.

"Missouri is definitely the bellwether this year," said Crawford. "It's in play on all three levels: the governorship, House seats, and a Senate contest between John Ashcroft and [Governor Mel] Carnahan that promises to be the most vicious race of the cycle."

Hotline's Chuck Todd pointed to likely Democratic pickups in the Delaware and Minnesota Senate seats, but also mentioned GOP advantages in the Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia Senate races. As for New York: "[Hillary Clinton] definitely picked the right state," said Sabato. "To beat her, Rick Lazio's message from now till election day should be simply this: 'carpetbagger, carpetbagger, carpetbagger . . . did I mention I was from New York?'"

In an election cycle that handicappers think will be skewed in favor of incumbents, many of the House seats remain toss-ups, with critical seats up for grabs in California, New Jersey, and Washington.

"It's going to matter whether it rained in California," said Todd. "A hundred votes could make the difference whether [Calif. Rep.] Jim Rogan gets reelected or not."

As an interesting touch, Sabato and the FreedomChannel unveiled a map of the U.S., with a believable selection of states marked as being taken by Gore or Bush. According to Sabato, the map displays a perfect tie in the electoral college between the two candidates, each garnering 269 votes.

"The interesting thing to note is that, by moving just one state into either column, you're electing a president," said Sabato. "This race will be a close one."