7/06/00 2:05 p.m.
Gore's West Coast Dilemma
Poll: The tight California race spells trouble for Gore.

By Arnold Steinberg, political strategist and author

he Presidential race in California today shows Al Gore with a small lead over Bush, but with the Texas governor holding the critical advantage with independent voters. That's according to the new Steinberg survey, which places Bush at 37% and Gore at 40% among registered voters.

In addition, 12 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for other candidates and 11% said they were still unsure. Gore's lead is at the three percent margin of error (random sample/1000).

While I did not conduct as many surveys as in past years, for this project, I was careful to use proprietary methodology that analyzes the turnout history of verified registered voters. This sample, which also included recent registrants, simulated the turnout expected for a Presidential election.

Thus, these results may understate Bush's strength, if the turnout is unexpectedly low among Democrats, or if more independents turn out. That's because Bush has a clear lead over Gore among independent voters. Gore's dilemma: the more he energizes the nonwhite base, the worse he may do among independents.

The ballot question did not mention other candidates by name. The inclusion of specific names, like Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan, might have affected results. The interviewing, which started Monday/June 26, just concluded. This cycle allowed adequate time for callbacks to insure optimum sampling.

Since Bush would be expected to do much better nationally than in California, this survey, validating his clear national lead, could be tautological. After all, California could be perhaps one-eighth of the national vote. Besides, a rising tide lifts all ships. But just as things can change nationally before the election, this survey obviously cannot predict the results in California.

Nonetheless, the results are significant. California is a must-win for Gore. Yet, with Bush apparently competitive, the vice president can no longer take this state for granted. Thus, Gore may be required to spend more time and money here.

The sometimes media-sponsored and closely watched Field "California Poll" (typically less reliable than the Los Angeles Times poll) shows Gore ahead 11 by points.  But Field's methodology notoriously tilts Democrat, then corrects near election time for credibility. Indeed, Mervin Field is remembered from 1982 for his insisting late on election night, despite the incoming results, that Mayor Tom Bradley would defeat Attorney General George Deukmejian for Governor, and Governor Jerry Brown would defeat Mayor Pete Wilson for U.S. Senator. While Duke barely won through absentees, Wilson won handily.

Unfortunately,  Republican pollsters servicing vendor-driven campaigns have their own credibility problems and live in glass houses.  In 1996, a Dole-sponsored Republican tracking poll showed him implausibly closing the gap here; millions of dollars were diverted from other states into California. Two years later, in 1998, a Lungren-sponsored Republican poll more implausibly showed Gray Davis just a few points ahead of Dan Lungren; huge contributions were channeled to Lungren while deserving legislative races went begging.

In California, Bush has a comfortable lead among white voters, but Gore beats Bush by nearly 3-to-1 among the state's growing proportion of nonwhite voters. In terms of income, Bush does best among middle-income voter households. Geographically, Gore's overwhelming lead among voters reached by the San Francisco media market contrasts with Bush leading or holding his own everywhere else in the state. Bush needs a strong Nader campaign there. Bush wins among homeowners, loses decisively among renters.  Bush would benefit from a strong campaign opposing Gray Davis' measure to raise local property taxes for schools.