10/31/00 2:10 p.m.
Carville Haunting
Panic time for Dems.

By Joel C. Rosenberg, president & CEO of November Communications, Inc.

uch.

As if Democrats weren't already desperate enough, a killer quote by the Ragin' Cajun himself is haunting the party faithful on Halloween.

In a rare, remarkable moment of candor and clarity, words by the best strategist the Democratic party has seen in a generation are unmasking the spooky truth: One campaign is terrified of not being able to effectively "energize the base." The other campaign has its base fired up and is reaching out to independents and swing voters and predicting a win in California. And it's panic time in the Democratic ranks.

So why all the nail biting among Republicans that the polls are "tightening"?

Last week, I predicted "the coming Bush landslide." Specifically, that Gov. Bush will defeat Vice President Gore by 51% to 43% and win more than 400 electoral votes, including California.

Then came the deluge of return e-mails. Democrats accused me of "inhaling." Republicans — even good, visionary, thoughtful conservatives — were fraught with fret and worry. Most who wrote me hoped I was right, but had little if any confidence of a Bush win, much less landslide.

O, we of little faith.

In 1994, I had the privilege of working for Rush Limbaugh as his research director. And I vividly remember Rush predicting in a September 1994 cover story in Policy Review magazine — "Why Liberals Fear Me" — and in an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times what no political pundit dared predict at the time: the coming conservative tidal wave that would sweep Democrats out of power and shake the liberal elites to the core.

Rush and his team talked publicly and constantly about Republicans sweeping the governor's races, Senate races and winning at least 50 seats in the House. Rush talked about it on air. We wrote about the coming landslide in the Limbaugh Letter (to over 400,000 subscribers). That October, I even wrote a column in the Washington Times in which President Clinton went on national television on election night to admit his party's defeat and pledge to move to the center, as George Stephanopolous and Dee Dee Meyers whimpered softly off camera.

But almost no one believed us.

It was remarkable. Polling and anecdotal evidence was pouring in. The intensity of the Republican base was at an all-time high. Democrats were depressed, defensive, demagogic and disoriented. Just like today. Yet the "vast right wing conspiracy" wouldn't, couldn't, didn't believe that good news was just around the corner. But it was.

Remember on the day after the 94 elections — the day after the tsunami? Rush opened his radio show playing James Brown's "I Feel Good"? It was electric. As Rush lit up a fine cigar in the studio, the entire Rush staff gathered in the control room in a state of euphoria — a moment of political ecstasy I'd never experienced before or since. And it didn't take rocket scientists to see such a moment was coming.

7 Reasons for Confidence
Now, despite daily fluctuations in national or statewide polls, consider the evidence of the coming landslide that's pouring in today:

1. The Big Picture — Bush has led in most national polls for nearly two years, except for the week to 10 days after the Democratic convention in August. Today, the best, most reliable national polls have Bush well ahead. The Portrait of America poll has Bush ahead 47% to 40%. And the Battleground/Voter.com poll has Bush up 44% to 39%. Even pollster John Zogby has Bush up 45% to 42%, and has Rep. Rick Lazio defeating Hillary Clinton.

2. The Nader Haters — This goes to the core of the Carville quote about needing to "energize the base." The Democratic base ain't energized because Al Gore isn't liberal enough for them. Jay Leno summed it up quite nicely: "Hey, you really want to scare Al Gore this Halloween? Dress up as Ralph Nader." Democrats are absolutely apoplectic about Ralph Nader. The compassionate party's hatred for the Green man is palpable. How intolerant.

3. The Cry for Clinton — All over the country, Democratic politicians and strategists who have the access to their party's best daily polling are begging President Clinton to save the day. And I suspect it's not to help Gore, it's to stop a possible GOP congressional landslide. It won't do either, but it's fun to watch.

4. Gore’s Home-Court Disadvantage — The vice president is fighting for his political survival in his own home state, his home base. Doesn't this say it all?

5. California in the Crosshairs — Nothing I wrote last week elicited more chuckles and derision than predicting Bush would win California. But now Bush himself is predicting the same thing. "The big surprise of this election year is I'm going to carry California," Bush said yesterday in the Golden State. "There's going to be a lot of shocked people on Nov. 7, starting with my opponent and all the pundits who don't understand what's happening here in California. We've got the greatest grassroots organization in this state's history." If nothing else, it's forcing Gore to spend time and money in a state he should have locked up. Gore's suddenly going back to California for the first time since September.

6. Can You Say “Intensity”? — This is a base election, pure and simple. The GOP has fire in the belly, the Dems don't. If you can feel it, you can believe it.

7. Democrats Breaking Against Gore — Dozens upon dozens of Democrats are endorsing Bush, more each week, including former Jimmy Carter's attorney general Griffen Bell.

Carville Revisited
Is there a chance Gore could still win? Sure, if Republicans don't vote.

Consider:
1800 — 1 vote gives Thomas Jefferson the presidency over Aaron Burr

1839 — 1 vote wins the Massachusetts governorship for Marcus Morton

1868 — 1 vote saves Andrew Johnson's presidency

1941 — 1 vote strengthens selective service before World War II

1960 — 1 vote per precinct gives JFK the presidency

1993 — 1 vote by Al Gore approves the largest tax increase in history

Conclusion: Every vote counts — because it's a base election, as James Carville knows all too well.

So, when and where did James Carville say, "Whenever I hear a campaign talk about the need to energize its base, that's a campaign going down the toilet"? In his 1994 book — All's Fair: Love, War and Running for President — on page 207. At the time, he was commenting on the dismal Bush campaign in 1992, struggling against Ross Perot. But it sure applies to the dismal Gore campaign in 2000, struggling against Ralph Nader.

Sweet dreams — and relax!