11/02/00 10:35 a.m.
Coming Around the Bases
The historical Democrat base is very much out to lunch.

By Michael Long, director of the White House Writers Group

nterpretation of polls — especially this year — is too much like tea-leaf reading to take partisans much beyond wishful thinking. Pure history — and pure numbers — however, are a different story. And a historical perspective on current polling, though the figures change at the margins day by day, reveals profound trouble for the vice president.

Scott Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll has been an extraordinarily stable buoy in a sea of dime-store sailboats. This week, Rasmussen offered a most-interesting set of raw data on how states historically vote in presidential elections. A cursory examination of the numbers yields facts that go beyond mere trend.

Rasmussen classified the states according to which party's candidate each went for in the last three elections. He then assigned each state a number of points equal to the average number of percentage points the state was above or below the national average for the candidate. By this ranking, the states fall into a continuum from Utah (most Republican), Idaho, Nebraska, Alasaka, Wyoming; through to (by presidential voting, centrist) Louisiana (which comes in with a score of 0, right in the middle); to New York, Massachusetts, and finally Rhode Island (most Democrat).

By marking each state in this list as currently held by Bush or Gore, or as a toss-up, a remarkable fact falls out: The historical Democrat base is very much out to lunch.

Of the 25 most Republican states, 23 go for Bush. Put another way, almost the entire historical Republican base is in the bank. Moreover, the only gaps in that base, Florida and Tennessee, are excusable for obvious reasons: Florida has been in extreme demographic flux over the last dozen years, and Tennessee is Gore's home state.

Of the 25 Republican base states, Gore claims none of them as his own in the current race, nor does he even claim "leaning toward" status in any.

Now consider the 25 most Democrat-voting states. Gore can claim only ten of them. Bush claims two. And a whopping 13 are toss-ups.

That means that the big chore in the final days of the election is Gore's: nevermind the middle, he has to win back territory that historically ought to be his.

By the Rasmussen numbers, Bush now has 231 electoral votes to Gore's 165 — and Rasmussen even grants Gore a win in California in that tally. With 139 votes up for grabs, and Bush only 39 short of a win, Gore's situation is grim. He cannot lose California and still win — it is mathematically impossible. He can win California and Florida together and still lose. He can add Michigan to that pair and still lose. And Pennsylvania, too. In fact, he would have to hold on to California and put together another 105 votes to win.

If, on the other hand, the Bush base is completed by Florida and Tennessee "coming home" to their historical choice, Bush needs only three electoral votes to win. He could get them — with a couple to spare — with a win in any single swing state, including the handful-or-less counts of Delaware, New Mexico, Maine, Iowa, or West Virginia.

And even without Florida and Tennessee going his way, Bush has to win only a maximum of six small swing states — or a single medium-sized state and one small one — to go over the top.

The election is in no way over. As long as there are aspirin factories to bomb and oil reserves to tap, Clinton hijinx will be possible, if not downright likely. But mathematically speaking, things look pretty good for George W. Bush.