11/07/00 8:40 a.m.
The Election Score
The chattering class discusses possible outcomes.

Compiled by Kathryn Jean Lopez, NR associate editor

Haley Barbour, former chairman of the Republican National Committee
The most likely outcome is that Bush will win the popular vote by 3-5 points and the electoral vote with about 300. It is not impossible for Gore to lose the popular vote and still get 270 electoral votes, but it is quite unlikely. Bush will probably carry Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Missouri, or 3 of the 4; while Gore will probably take Pennsylvania, Illinois and no more than one of the other 4.

Whoever wins the presidential election is likely to win a majority in the House, and that means the Republicans in my view. Whoever wins the House will have a small majority, though the GOP could add to their current number.

The Republicans will lose seats in the Senate, though probably not enough to lose their majority. Crucial to the GOP is to pick up Nevada and Virginia, which would force the Democrats to win 6 Republican-held seats, which would be the equivalent of threading the needle blindfolded.

Clint Bolick, vice president, the Institute for Justice
Inside-the-Beltway predictions are hazardous, because this city is so removed from reality. We can safely predict Gore will win D.C.! I have never seen Republicans so motivated, and as a result Bush will win the popular vote. But Bush and his campaign have projected overconfidence. The swing states mostly seem to lean toward Gore. As a result, I think Gore will eke out an Electoral College victory by 274-264. The crucial swing state: Michigan, where my friends say Republicans are fighting hard, but the unions have given members a day off. (Gee, thanks, GM!) Allen will edge Robb in Virginia; though Robb has waged a brilliant media attack campaign.

Other winners in close Senate contests will be Abraham, Corzine, Clinton, Carnahan, Gorton, Ensign, Nelsons (in Nebraska & Florida), Dayton, and Carper. I hope I'm wrong about some of them! Republicans will lose two in both the Senate and House. A big upset: Rogan keeps his seat.

Both school-choice initiatives will lose badly, proving once again that the initiative route is not the way to go for now. The issue is too easily demagogued.

The safest bet: Bolick is a better lawyer than political prognosticator!

Peter Collier, publisher, Encounter Books
I am by nature a glass-is-half-empty sort of guy. I try to inoculate myself against despair by preparing for — indeed, inviting — the worst. Bill Kristol may have a kindred sensibility. Others experienced a metaphysical lurch when he predicted 317 electoral votes for Gore yesterday in the Post. I felt strangely requited.

I have engaged in all sorts of magical thinking during this campaign, such as luring my serenely confident conservative friends into 10-1 bets — my $100 against their $10 and they get Bush — on the assumption that losing $100 here and there would be a small price to pay for a Gore loss. This has been the other side of my coin — trying to tempt fate to do the right thing.

Because I believe that the world is arranged to break your heart, it seems to me that we could lose it tomorrow in some fluky — and therefore all the more painful — way, despite what Rasmussen and Battleground have said for the last three weeks. Yet I also believe, as Al Gore said, that this is a battle of good versus evil, and that he is evil. So, in a gesture of almost random affirmation, I am picking Bush by 50% to 46% with the rest of the votes spread out among Nader and all the other third-party geeks. I assert, moreover, that Bush will win 282 electoral votes and that the Republicans will maintain control of both houses. My one concession to reality is the admission that Hillary will win.

I desperately want this to happen because I want to see the cameras pan the faces of certain people as the news of America's civic renewal arrives. Cher, Marlo Thomas, Helen Hunt, Alec Baldwin (and all his choromosomally challenged brothers), John Cusak, Sharon Stone, and all the other wannabes in Hollywood who subtract from the sum total of human knowledge every time they open their mouths. (I forgot Rob Reiner, who really is a Big Fat Idiot.) I want to see the faces of those demented feminists who fear that some woman somewhere may not be having an abortion. And also those human trombones and professional yodelers who edit the New York Times. I include the perverts aggrandizing themselves as "killers" running a "slaughterhouse" who have designed the depressing Gore campaign. Cllinton, who will have found his legacy in this loss. And Gore himself, who is the weirdest candidate we have had in a long time — lying pathologically; abusing every family member, alive and dead; talking down to blacks in their own churches; and wearing tight pants designed to show that he, like Clinton, has one, although it is consecrated to monogamous activity.

As the Japanese proverb has it, If you sit by the river long enough, you will see the bodies of your enemies float by.

Ann Coulter, syndicated columnist and lawyer
I feel like a little kid on Christmas Eve. I'm so excited I can barely stand it. When not pacing, I'm lying in bed, chuckling to myself, wiggling my toes in delight, while thinking of all the mean, vicious things I'm going to say to liberals after George W. Bush wins the election.

I have dropped the pretense of praying merely for the "better man" to win or muttering vague generalities like "thy will be done." No more beating around the bush: Now I'm praying directly for Barbra Streisand, Cher, and Sarah Jessica Parker to cry bitter, angry tears on election night.

And they will. Despite the economy, George W. Bush is going to win.

You have to understand the importance of that last statement to appreciate what a Bush win will mean, no matter how close it is. Only twice since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was invented in 1897 has an incumbent president or vice president lost when the Dow went up from the end of July to the end of October. That's a fact. This year, the Dow went up. Gore is supposed to win. All the econometric models say so.

But George W. Bush is going to win. He will do so in defiance of an economic model that has predicted every election, but three, for over a century. I've never doubted it. Americans hated Clinton deeply, passionately, pervasively. And they will punish his underling for it.

Admittedly, it helped that the vice president is a complete dork, a point on which I have dwelt extensively for the past year. Like LBJ was normal? The Dow got that freak-dog elected.

It also helped that Bush is such an appealing candidate, principled, charming, and smart (despite what the media say). Jimmy Carter was appealing, too — as far as DemocRATS go. The Dow crushed him.

And our prayers helped. (Especially mine, which have been extremely specific of late.)

All the pundits and pollsters who perseverated about how much the "American People" adored Bill Clinton more and more with each additional felony he was shown to have committed will be exposed as liars or idiots. Oh, how I hate them! And, oh, how I hate the waiting.

To quote wacky comic Prof. Irwin Corey, when asked about his feelings on the subject of love: "I like love, because it's so close to hate. And without hate, there could be no revenge"

Tomorrow, we take revenge.

Donald Devine, currently a Washington Times columnist & a Washington-based policy consultant.
The underlying reality is that the nation is more divided into liberal and conservative cultures than ever. The conservative theme of lower taxes, less government, and moral leadership trumped the liberal issues of campaign reform, gun control and prescription drugs; but the good economy almost offsets this issue shortfall. Yet, these people made up their minds months ago. The election will be decided by four percent of those who show up today. They are very uninformed and could go in any direction depending upon how they felt this morning. This margin is too small for polls to measure even though this and the reflexive way the choice will be made will not stop the pundits from claiming afterwards that big ideas won them over at the end. The statistician splits the difference even though he knows animal spirits often end flowing way or another. Bush wins with 271 electoral votes to 267 for Gore (popular vote Bush 49%, Gore 46%, Nader 2%, Buchanan 1%), Republicans keep the House but only with a 3 seat margin (218 R, 215 D, 2 independent), and the weak GOP Senate field forces an even balance, 50-50, Dick Cheney breaking the tie.

Kellyanne Fitpatrick, president of the polling company
Turnout will be astonishingly high. The Senate will produce all of the shockers on Election Day. At least 3-4 incumbents will go down, although GOP will collect delicious victories in NJ and NY Senate contests. Hillary will be humiliated, this time not by her husband. Republicans suffer modest losses in the House and Senate, but retain majority control. For the third election in a row, America elects its President with less than 50% of the vote. Gore will lose Tennessee, win the presidency, but his term starts to end the day it begins. Nader gets his 5% and begins campaign 2004 immediately, a few moments after John McCain, a few moments after the house in Chappaqua goes back onto the market."

Grover Norquist, president, Americans for Tax Reform
Bush wins with a 5-point margin. Nader gets 3 percent. Buchanan less than one percent. GOP holds the house with a loss of one. Senate has GOP down two. I would be more optimistic, but I am assuming an unprecedented get out the vote effort by the labor unions. Also massive efforts at vote fraud. We have read about efforts to turn out votes of those in pre-trial detention, homeless shelters etc.

I am not confident that the GOP has prepared well enough to combat vote fraud in Detroit, East St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Cleveland — not to mention Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee. Without vote fraud and paid voter turnout I would bet on a stronger Bush win of 8 points and a GOP pickup of 2-3 House seats.

This should have been a blow out for Gore: peace, prosperity, the establishment press working overtime, Hollywood weighing in, a divisive GOP primary. But the Reagan coalition held.

Russ Smith, editor-in-chief, New York Press and MUGGER columnist.
Bush is going to win tonight in a landslide. The following predictions are tinged only slightly by my absolute disgust with the elite Beltway media for its misleading and condescending coverage of this 18-month marathon.

Bush: 50% and 464 EVs.
Gore: 42% and 74 EVs.
Nader: 6% and 0 EVs.

Gore's decision to "be his own man" wasn't a bad one, but by keeping Clinton on the golf course, he lost his most charismatic cheerleader in key urban areas. Gore's turnout will be abysmal. It's beyond me why Clinton remains popular in certain parts of the country, but as the first Black President, Gay President, Female President and McDonald's President, he should've been dispatched to Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Detroit, Miami, St. Louis, Cleveland, and Newark on a rotating basis.

Bush's major effort in California was the single smartest move of the campaign by either side. Not only was it an audacious national statement that knocked Gore off his stride, but it was a demonstration that he keeps promises. As a bonus, he'll win the state.

I predict the Senate will be a gain of one for the GOP. Franks wins in NJ, Lazio in NY, Roth goes down in DE. The GOP will pick up 2 seats in the House.

Big surprise: Nader runs strong in New York, tamping Gore's win there down to about 10% over Bush.

Big media loser: The New York Times. The paper's hysterical editorials against Nader were vile; its flagrant cheerleading for Gore expected but still over the top. Soon, fewer people will call it "The paper of record."

Paul M. Weyrich President of The Free Congress Foundation & host of the live TV talk show Direct Line on America's Voice
Here are my fearless predictions for the just upon us elections:

Gov. George W. Bush 50%
Vice President Al Gore 45%
Ralph Nader 4%
Pat Buchanan 1%
Electoral College: Bush 330; Gore 205

In the U.S. Senate, the 107th Congress will have 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Among the GOP incumbents defeated will be veteran GOP Finance Committee chairman Bill Roth of Delaware and Sen. Rod Grams of Minnesota. Among the newly elected GOP senators will be former Virginia Gov. George Allen, former Nevada congressman John Ensign, and New York congressman Rick Lazio. Voters in Missouri, despite the polls, will narrowly reelect Sen.S John Ashcroft rather than his deceased opponent.

In the House of Representatives for the 107th Congress Republicans will actually gain two seats from the current line-up. This will largely be accomplished by unexpected victories in previously Democratic held districts such as Pat Danner's seat in Missouri, for example.

Republican governors will end up with a net gain of one…plus the Vermont legislature will end up in Republican hands and it will choose the next governor because the current governor Howard Dean will not receive over 50% of the vote, even though he will have an ample plurality. So called "civic unions" will have taken a rather steep political toll in that supposedly "progressive" state.

Marshall Wittmann, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute
Don't let anyone fool you. This is an election largely about nothing. That is why there will not be likely any dramatic movements in any direction. Sure, there were great issues discussed, but this was a campaign mostly about empathy and aesthetics. Republicans needed to demonstrate that they had a heart and could hug with the best of them. They did. The Clintonian impact truly looms large even as Republicans are likely to control both the legislative and executive branches on Wednesday morning. My predictions with a margin of error of 100%: George W. Bush by over 300 electoral votes and 4 points. Republicans retain the Senate and House but loose 2 net seats in each. Nader gets his 5%, and remains a thorn in the side of Democrats. H. Clinton barely wins in New York and remains a thorn in the side of us all.