11/08/00 8:50 a.m.
About Last Night
The insomniac symposium (To read Tuesday's predictions, click here).

Complied by Kathryn Jean Lopez, NR associate editor

Clint Bolick, vice president, the Institute for Justice
Well, the reason I was wrong...er, right...er, wrong...ah, heck!

I had predicted a squeaker with Gore edging Bush in the Electoral College, and Bush narrowly winning the popular vote. Had that happened I would've been cursing the Electoral College. Wow, what a great system.

Seriously, what irked me over the past several weeks was the overconfidence of the Bush camp. When Bush proclaimed more than a week ago that he was on the cusp of victory, and then took a day off, he let some supporters grow complacent while energizing the Gore team. I attended a Heritage Foundation public interest law conference last week, and everyone was talking about who should get jobs in the Bush administration. I wondered if somehow I'd missed the election. Throughout the contest, Republicans allowed optimism, rather than objective analysis, to govern their strategy. We always do better when we play the underdog role.

National polls showed Bush up from between one and seven points. But polls in swing states (such as, gulp, Florida) consistently showed Gore winning. Still, Bush acted as if he had a huge lead and played defense. Meanwhile, Gore worked like crazy. So we ended up with an unnecessary squeaker in this all-important election contest.

Still, I've never seen Republicans as energized as in this campaign, as was the Bush campaign, which worked tirelessly throughout the campaign. The energy level needs to persist so that Bush, if he prevails, can govern effectively and begin the overdue task of expanding the Republican constituency based on compassionate conservative principles.

Democrats did slightly better in Senate races than I predicted. With at least two new mega-millionaire senators — Corzine and Dayton — Democrats hit upon a formula of giving lip service to campaign-finance reform while buying elections.

Jim Rogan couldn't pull it out in CA despite a great campaign and awesome talent, underscoring the desperate straits for Republicans in CA — a problem that will worsen after redistricting.

As predicted, the school choice initiatives lost badly. We need to reclaim momentum, by quickly enacting the DC school choice program that was twice passed by Congress but vetoed by Bill Clinton. This crucial does better when we argue about concrete realities rather than abstractions.

Though my overall predictions were pretty much on target (I never wanted to be wrong about anything as much as my presidential forecast), I did much better at predicting that the Yankees would win it all. I think I'll stick with sports.

Kellyanne Fitpatrick, president, the polling company
Alas, it all came true! Confused? Turnout WAS earth-shattering, with snake-like lines in some precincts resembling third world countries in an inaugural democratic election. In our post-election poll, 62% of actual voters said they paid more attention to this election than those in the past, with a plurality of voters (particularly Republicans and conservatives) making up their mind for President before the summer. The Senate WAS rattled, and yes, the GOP has good news coming out of the Empire and Garden States, since Hillary Clinton and Jon Corzine provide useful exhibits to support the idea that Democratic party officials are becoming more liberal, not less. Bill Clinton was and will continue to be a factor; our-post election survey shows that a majority of actual voters agree (54% agree, 39% strongly so) with the statement, "I am just sick and tired of the Clintons"; when asked how Bill Clinton will be remembered, 18% say for his attempt to address issues, but 75% say his personal behavior. And, finally, the crowner: If Hillary ran for president, 13% of voters nationwide say they would definitely vote for, 18% say they would probably vote for her but it depends who ran against her, 11% said they would probably run against her but it depends who ran against her and a whopping 45% would DEFINITELY VOTE AGAINST HER. Nader DID get 5%, just not nationwide. Gore was embarrassed on his home turf, but may get the last laugh…. How's that for spin?

Russ Smith, New York Press editor-in-chief and MUGGER columnist
Since I was completely off the mark predicting a Bush landslide exactly 24 hours ago, a few comments while I eat some crow.

1. Television projections have got to go.

2. As a journalist, I feel privileged to have watched the most extraordinary political election in more than 100 years.

3. I have no idea what the recount will show. I hope Bush's margin, aided by absentee ballots will stand up, but who knows. I also hope there will be about 100 staff members from each side watching the recount and looking for voter fraud on either side.

4. The most distasteful pundit comment came from Paul Begala after Bush was projected the winner early this morning. He blamed Ralph Nader in a very bitter way. Begala's memory is short: what effect did Ross Perot have in '92? It didn't benefit President Bush.

5. Finally, I'm glad I got a copy at the deli of the New York Post with the headline "Bush Wins."

Donald Devine, Donald Devine, a Washington Times columnist & a Washington-based policy consultant
After predicting an Electoral College breakdown of 271 to 267 — with George Bush on top — and modest Republican losses while retaining Congress, you do not have much explaining to do on the morning after. The Republican "L" from the Mountain West into the South and the Ohio Valley held firm. The Democrats took the rest, just as forecast. The only question is Florida. Republicans suffered losses in the House and Senate but held on to their small majorities. Considering the economy, the Democrats should have run away with it so the Republicans should consider themselves lucky. It seems appropriate to end with the sentence that began my prediction: "The underlying reality is that the nation is more divided into liberal and conservative cultures than ever."

Paul M. Weyrich, President of The Free Congress Foundation & host of the live TV talk show Direct Line on America's Voice
How did I get to make these very optimistic predictions? I hang around with too many Republicans, that's why. Basically I heard only one side of the story. As a former journalist I should know better, but these Republicans can be awfully comforting in a cruel world and their food isn't half bad either. I also was influenced by the continuing polls which showed Bush with a narrow lead. I viewed Gore as the functional equivalent of an incumbent and last minute voters rarely break in favor of incumbents. Those polls also influenced my thinking respecting the Electoral College. I thought Bush would get Wisconsin, Iowa and some of those states, which ended, up getting called for Gore early Wednesday morning. Of course I as absolutely sure that Bush would get Florida because I figured Jeb would deliver for his brother.

I was going to predict a much closer Senate (51-49) until I talked to a longtime GOP operative who convinced me that a couple of the seats I had marked for extinction were going to be okay. I wish I had trusted my own analysis. Even at that I would have been too optimistic. That is because I just could not believe the voters of Missouri would fall for the phony sympathy orchestration being conducted in the Missouri Senate race against John Ashcroft. The bias against Hillary Clinton was my own. I was warned by nearly everyone that Rick Lazio wasn't going to make it but I refused to believe reality. I just could not believe voters in New York would elect that woman. At least I was correct regarding the new GOP Senators from Nevada and Virginia.

Initially it appeared as if my prediction regarding the House was going to come true. The first stories to be written about control of the House suggested that the GOP would win a net gain of three seats. But as reports came in from the West Coast that picture changed. Now it appears that Republicans have just a bare majority with a few races yet to be finally determined. It is a good thing for Republicans that they were able to win in seats such as Pat Danners or they would be on the outside looking in.

My optimism continued on the gubernatorial front where I predicted a net gain of one. Instead it appears that the GOP is looking at a net loss of two. Contrary to what I had predicted, Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont was re-elected with 50% of the vote, thus just avoiding the vote being thrown into the legislature.

The bottom line is this: Someone else should be in the predicting business. I'm too much of a sucker for a good poll result.

Marshall Wittmann, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute
Of course, I knew what was going to happen all along — a  combination of the apocalypse  and the rapture.  The dead would rise from the grave, Elian Gonzalez's Miami family would determine the outcome of the election and a civil war would break out between the cities and the countryside.  I don't know about you, but I predicted this along.  The sure big winner is the mushy center and the losers are ideologues of the right and left.  Expect Olympia Snow to hold the balance of power in America.  With W. likely in the Big House it will be la-bipartisan-empathy-filled-hugging marathon in the immediate future. Yipee!