February 09, 2005, 8:08 a.m.
For Real?
“Historic breakthrough” or Mideast mirage?

By Joel C. Rosenberg

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is not a man known for being wildly optimistic about the prospect of making peace with the Palestinians. But last month Israel's hawk-in-chief told reporters that with Yasser Arafat dead and buried and Mahmoud Abbas recently elected as the chairman of the Palestinian Authority, the conditions are now ripe for a "historic breakthrough."

Yesterday morning, with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordanian King Abdullah cheering him on, Sharon shook hands with Abbas (a.k.a., "Abu Mazen") in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh. Together, they declared an end to four years of Palestinian-Israeli violence, and the beginning of — in Sharon's words — "a new period of tranquility and hope."

Abbas in turn declared, "We have agreed with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to cease all acts of violence against the Israelis and the Palestinians wherever they are." Then Sharon invited Abbas to visit him on his ranch in southern Israel.

Are we really in the last days of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or is this all another Middle East mirage? There are many here in Washington and in Israel who remain understandably skeptical that Abbas is a true peacemaker at heart. But inside the White House and the upper echelons of the State Department there is a real and growing sense that Abbas may, in fact, be the moderate, pragmatic leader for which they have been waiting so long.

Last week I ran into a senior political adviser to President Bush at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington. We chatted for a few moments about the president's powerful State of the Union speech and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's whirlwind tour through Europe and the Middle East. I asked him about the administration's remarkable warmth towards a man who was for years Arafat's chief deputy. "Abu Mazen appears to be the real deal," he told me. "We think we can do business with him, and if we can, we're about to make history."

Consider these recent developments:

Abbas has deployed Palestinian security forces to stop suicide bombers and those trying to launch rocket attacks against Israel — the first time a Palestinian leader has taken such concrete steps to crack down on violence.

Abbas is also threatening to arrest militants if they persist in fomenting violence. As one Associated Press report put it, "Palestinian security forces on Saturday briefly detained three top members of a faction that claimed an attack that wounded two Israelis, officials said, marking the first such move since Mahmoud Abbas was elected leader last month."

Abbas has ordered Palestinian television and radio stations to stop glorifying the Islamic radicals in general and suicide bombers in particular, and to allow the free exchange of ideas on their airwaves. "[Abbas] does not want a screen full of blood," Radwan Abu Ayash, head of the Palestinian Broadcasting Corporation, told the London Sunday Telegraph (cited the other day by the Washington Times). "We must avoid bloody things, which are not a good image for our people. He also said that he does not want songs praising him or for us to report on all his activities — only if there is some news value. He wanted a 'free screen' and said that all sides should have the right to talk. These are big changes."

It is early, to be sure. Abbas still has much to do to prove his seriousness about reducing violence. Hamas has already announced it does not consider itself bound by Abbas's ceasefire pledge. And the more Abbas positions himself as a Palestinian Anwar Sadat, the more he risks Sadat's fate — assassination at the hands of extremists.

But there is evidence that even the first few steps by Abbas and his team are already beginning to bear fruit. Since Arafat's death, for example, Palestinian violence against Israel is down 75 percent. And this is why Sharon agreed to a summit with Abbas without direct U.S. participation. It is why President Bush sent Secretary Rice to the region on her first foreign trip. It is why the president has invited Sharon and Abbas to visit him in Washington later this spring, after refusing even to meet with Arafat for the first four years of his administration. It is also why the president decided to elevate the Middle East peace process to top priority status during his recent State of the Union address — because he believes real progress is suddenly possible.

"The beginnings of reform and democracy in the Palestinian territories are showing the power of freedom to break old patterns of violence and failure," President Bush told the nation. "To promote this democracy, I will ask Congress for 350 million dollars to support Palestinian political, economic, and security reforms. The goal of two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace is within reach — and America will help them achieve that goal."

It is without question among the president's most ambitious goals. But with the Saddam Hussein, Yasser Arafat, and the Taliban out of the picture and al Qaeda on the run, it suddenly seems within reach for the first time since the Jewish state was reborn in 1948.

— Joel C. Rosenberg is the New York Times-best-selling author of The Last Jihad and The Last Days.

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