Excellent piece by Bob Kagan in today’s Post about the NIE leak. The nature of this “estimate” is highly suspect – or at least highly subjective. How do the intelligence agencies measure the effect of the Iraq War in motivating young Muslim men to become terrorists? How do they distinguish that “provocation” from the Mohammed cartoons, the situation in Kashmir, Guantanamo, the Pope’s comments, the Israeli/Hezbollah war, women in miniskirts, or the death of Zarqawi? Intelligence agencies are supposed to answer questions like “Does country X have bio weapons?” In that, the intelligence community got an F. Now they are seeking to plumb the much murkier question of what goes on in men’s minds and hearts. Kagan asks to see their data. Grains of salt should be standard issue when considering the work product of Langley et al.