Romney, Rudy, Electability
Lisa, I look at the same data you do and reach the opposite conclusion. Romney is doing much better in places where he has high name identification. If he’s the nominee, he’ll have high name identification everywhere. There may be reasons to worry about his electability, but I don’t think his current national numbers are a great cause for worry.
Giuliani may have a better shot at winning the nomination than Romney–let’s stipulate that for the moment–but he has a lower chance of winning it with a solid majority, as opposed to a plurality. Giuliani as nominee could have a pretty serious problem unifying the party, let alone reaching beyond it. And even if Giuliani cut the margin of defeat in places such as California, he would have to actually win for it to make a difference. I find it hard to believe that any Republican is going to win California next year.