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The more I think about it, the better I feel about a Bloomberg third party candidacy. I think it is obvious he can’t win. And while I understand the argument that he could siphon off more GOP votes than Democratic ones, I’m increasingly skeptical that that’s how it would work out. By November 2008, I simply don’t think that the election will be anything like the referendum on Bush the Democrats want it to be. Moreover, depending on who the GOP candidate is, the Republican could cast himself as more of a “change agent” than Hillary (though less of one than Obama). Ultimately, having a race where there are two pro-choice social liberals from New York and one pro-life social conservative; two more dovish war-on-terror candidates and one hawkish one; two tax-hikers and one tax-cutter, etc etc is a recipe for GOP success. Of course, a Giuliani candidacy could shake that math up considerably. But beyond that, I think Bloomberg would help the GOP retain the White House in ‘08. And it would be fun watching Bloomberg lose and spend half a billion dollars in the process.



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