Google+
Close

The Corner

The one and only.

Photo Finish?



Text  



The results of Super Tuesday on the Democratic side were of course taken to denote a very close race, as surely they did. Clinton and Obama gained very similar numbers of delegates, and the total popular vote was extremely close (7. 348 million for Clinton to 7.295 million for Obama, or a difference of about 0.4%).

But the strange thing is, this total result does not reflect a large number of very close state-by-state results. In fact, in most states the Democratic primaries were blowouts for one candidate or another. In only four of the twenty-two states (New Mexico, Missouri, Arizona, and Connecticut) was the margin between Clinton and Obama below 10 points. Elsewhere one or the other scored a huge victory (state-by-state spreads below the fold). I can’t say I know quite what to make of it, but it suggests a peculiar regional character to what in the big picture seems like a very tight race — a dynamic more to be expected in general elections than party primaries. The particular states involved in Super Tuesday, as much as the larger national picture, certainly seem to have had a great deal to do with the close overall results. Most of these states, looked at individually, would not lead you to think this was a photo finish.

State-by-state results for the Democrats:

Utah
Obama 57, Clinton 39 (18 point spread)

Tennessee
Clinton 54, Obama 41 (13 point spread)

Oklahoma
Clinton 55, Obama 31 (24 point spread)

New York
Clinton 57, Obama 40 (17 point spread)

New Mexico
Clinton 49, Obama 48 (1 point spread)

New Jersey
Clinton 54, Obama 44 (10 point spread)

Missouri
Obama 49, Clinton 48 (1 point spread)

Massachusetts
Clinton 56, Obama 41 (15 point spread)

Illinois
Obama 65, Clinton 33 (32 point spread)

Georgia
Obama 66, Clinton 31 (35 point spread)

Delaware
Obama 53, Clinton 42 (11 point spread)

Connecticut
Obama 51, Clinton 47 (4 point spread)

California
Clinton 52, Obama 42 (10 point spread)

Arkansas
Clinton 70, Obama 27 (43 point spread)

Arizona
Clinton 51, Obama 42 (9 point spread)

Alabama
Obama 56, Clinton 42 (14 point spread)

North Dakota
Obama 61, Clinton 37 (24 point spread)

Minnesota
Obama 66, Clinton 32 (34 point spread)

Kansas
Obama 74, Clinton 26 (48 point spread)

Idaho
Obama 80, Clinton 17 (63 point spread)

Colorado
Obama 67, Clinton 32 (35 point spread)

Alaska
Obama 74, Clinton 25 (49 point spread)



Text  


Sign up for free NRO e-mails today:

Subscribe to National Review