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The Democratic Success Narrative Unwinds


The conventional narrative for 2008 is that the Democrats would have to try really hard not to win the White House. Polls asking generic questions about which party voters will support bear this out, as did early presidential preference polls. The narrative is still well-established in the mainstream media, but reality is shifting from under it. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows a dead heat between McCain and Clinton, and he leads Obama by three points. The Zogby tracking poll shows McCain up by 5 or 6 points vs. Obama or Clinton respectively. Of course it is early in the game, but it is worth noting since the press has declared McCain “forgotten.” He’s doing well without their help. This also suggests the “electability” question is a wash on the Democratic side — neither candidate seems more likely to win, a factor that helps the Clinton campaign, since in earlier polls Obama generally came out on top.


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