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Let’s take that below Politico quote as a guide (and another McCain aide just told me he believes it accurately reflects the state of play). If CO, NV, and VA are up for grabs and PA is in play (and McCain holds the rest of the red states from 2004), here’s what has to happen. McCain either has to hold all three states among CO, NV, and VA, or if he loses any of them, he must win PA. Losing just NV among the three creates a tie, which presumably isn’t good enough. And if McCain loses all three, he can win PA and still lose (as First Read points out today). Again, there’s a scenario for McCain here, but it would be, to paraphrase Wellington, a near-run thing.


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