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CO/PA



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Even though Obama hasn’t had the big double digit leads in CO he has had in other states, the McCain camp considers it gone (citing early voting and the Dem registration effort in the state). Evidence of the campaign’s priorities can be seen here: i.e., forget CO and concentrate on PA. The campaign also seems to consider–countering the CW for much of the year–NM and/or IA more doable than CO, although neither NM nor IA have looked great in public polling (NM at least had one recent poll at 5, while IA’s closest recent poll had it at 8). Anyway, all of this is by way of saying that my strategic advice a while ago to forget PA and concentrate on CO seems to have been exactly wrong (not for the first time). The McCain resources poured into the state, Murtha’s comments, and Obama’s bitter remarks appear to be keeping it within the realm of possibility.

 

UPDATE

E-mails:

–Mr. Lowry,

The One is planning on being in downtown Des Moines today.  There was a big ‘traffic alert’ sent around the office yesterday.

It’s surprising given that the Register has this thing locked.  I wonder if it’s a microcosm of leaning states – published polls with solid leads but internals showing softness or concern.

–If McCain is going to win, he has to get PA and NV.  I don’t think there are any other realistic possibilities.  Virginia doesn’t put him over the top, so should not be a focus IMO, unless he thinks that’s more feasible than NV.

– Rich,

Where do you get your information?

Early voting here in Colorado has actually been unexpectedly good for Republicans, see here.

Unless things have changed dramatically in the last three days, early voting data so far has favored Republicans. Given that almost all polls released in Colorado has a 5+ point voter ID advantage for Dems (when in reality early voting AND total registered voters are tied in terms of voter ID), things are looking good for McCain/Palin here.



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