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The Minority Vote


Here’s the money quote on the minority vote:

Leaving the non-white vote from November 4th alone, if McCain had merely retained the level of white support Bush did in ‘04, he would’ve won Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. It wouldn’t have been enough to keep Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, or Iowa (barely) from flipping to the Democrats, so Obama would’ve still won the electoral college, 296-242. But the election wouldn’t have been the 364-174 blowout it ended up being.

What if, leaving the non-Hispanic vote unchanged, McCain had enjoyed the same support among Hispanics Bush did in ‘04? Using the inaccurate Hispanic numbers reported from that election’s exit polling that overstated the GOP’s performance among Hispanics, and recalling that much of the Hispanic goodwill towards Republicans was bought via the housing bubble that provided years of explosive construction work and astronomical increases in Southwestern housing valuations, he would’ve won Florida [and maybe Indiana]. That’s it. Obama’s electoral victory would’ve remained overwhelming, at 337-201 (emphases in original).

It seems to me that the writer is downplaying one of his findings: that even if McCain had carried the same share of the white vote that Bush got in 2004, he would have won fewer electoral votes than John Kerry.


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