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Did Gay Marriage Hurt Scozzafava in NY-23?



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NY-23. Does it mean nothing? Does it mean anything? Is the district more Republican than conservative? More libertarian than anything else?

I dunno. So I did a poll. Politico’s Ben Smith just reported it under the headline, “NOM poll: Marriage a wedge in NY-23“:

As conservative groups scramble to take credit for their roles in Doug Hoffman’s surge, the National Organization for Marriage sends on a poll indicating that Dede Scozzfava’s stance on marriage put her well out of line with the district, not to mention the Republican Party.

The QEV Analytics poll of 318 voters in the district found, the group says, that: 52 percent oppose gay marriage, 35 percent favor gay marriage, 13 percent responded “don’t know/refuse.”

Also:

Half of Hoffman’s supporters (50%) say that Dede Scozzafava’s support for the legalization of same-sex marriage was a factor in their decision not to support her. Similarly, 45% of Hoffman’s supporters say that his position on same-sex marriage was a factor in their decision to vote for him. Only 11% of Owens voters say his position on same-sex marriage was a factor in their decision to support him.

NOM sent out 160,000 pieces of mail and made more than 250,000 robocalls and live calls to make sure voters in NY-23 knew Scozzafava voted for gay marriage. The poll showed 60% of voters recall having seen ads about same-sex marriage, and Hoffman leads 50%–34% among those who recall seeing such ads, while Hoffman is tied with Owens, 42%–41%, among those who do not recall having seen such ads.

NY-23. What does it all mean? Here’s one thought: It is a very bad idea for a Republican to vote for gay marriage. 



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