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Missouri’s July Bellwether



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It goes without saying that Jim Geraghty’s Campaign Spot is the place to be tomorrow for analysis on tonight’s primary contests. Jim has already noted the victory of Rick “Tough Nerd” Snyder in the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary. Snyder is a real-deal candidate.

But perhaps the most interesting news comes out of Missouri. No, not the easy victory of Rep. Roy Blunt in the Republican Senate primary.

I’m talking about the referendum on the individual mandate in Obamacare — the first of its kind:

Missouri voters have strongly approved a new law that rejects a key provision of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul.

Tuesday’s vote approving the ballot measure is seen as largely symbolic because federal law generally trumps state law. But it could portend trouble for the Democratic Party in November’s midterm election.

Legislatures in other states have passed similar measures. But Missouri is the first state to challenge aspects of the law in a referendum.

Missouri’s law prohibits the government from requiring people to have health insurance or from penalizing them from paying for their own health care. That conflicts with a federal requirement that most people have health insurance or face penalties starting in 2014.

They say Missouri is a — perhaps the – bellwether state. If so, the Democrats had better start typing up résumés. At time of posting, support for the the measure stood at between 75 and 80 percent.

UPDATE: The map for the anti-mandate ballot question:



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