You saw last week’s Gallup poll, which showed an unprecedented ten-point lead for Republicans on a generic ballot. But that’s not even the whole story. Yesterday’s Gallup poll shows an enormous gap in enthusiasm, and, consequently, likely voter turnout.

Fifty-four percent of Republicans — versus 30 percent of Democrats — said that they had given “some” or “quite a lot” of thought to upcoming elections. The poll is a good measure of voter attentiveness, which correlates with enthusiasm and likely election-day turnout. So not only are Republicans winning more popular support, they also promise to get more of their own in voting booths.

Gallup explains:

Gallup’s “thought given to the elections” indicator of voter turnout suggests that, if the midterm elections were held today, the Republicans would have a substantial advantage over the Democrats in turnout — largely because of the attentiveness of conservative Republicans. This would well exceed the typical turnout advantage Republicans enjoy in midterm elections, including 1994…

It’s a virtual certainty that voters’ attention to the election will increase in the coming months. If this increase is proportionate between Republicans and Democrats, then the Republicans will likely maintain a formidable turnout advantage…

A word of caution: The poll also shows low attentiveness among independents, who, in this environment, would be more likely to lean Republican. Republican candidates will benefit from Democrats’ low enthusiasm, but they’ll need to find some way to shake independents out of this apathy to fully benefit from the swing in public opinion.