The California Senate race will be decided in Los Angeles County and not in my more liberal neck of the woods, but as someone who has a sort-of-front-seat view, I can try to answer the question of whether the Golden State is in play.
Short answer: yes.
For openers, check the most recent PPIC poll. It has Boxer ahead by five (43–38 percent). That’s striking distance, folks. Moreover, 43 percent is a particularly anemic number for a three-term incumbent who (a) had only token primary opposition (sorry, Mickey Kaus); (b) is running both positive and negative ads day and night; and (c) faces an opponent who is unabashedly conservative (pro-life, pro-drilling, anti-stimulus) in a notoriously deep-blue state.
Add to that the Republicans’ emphasis on a strong ground game in California (registering voters, targeting independents, maxing out GOP turnout) — as opposed to the Democrats, who are struggling at organization (that’s why Bill Clinton was out here last week) — and it’s clear that Boxer-Fiorina could go late into the night.
Besides, if things were hunky-dory in the Golden State, why would President Obama be coming to Los Angeles tomorrow to campaign? He’ll be at USC again — expect another traffic jam.
That said, there is a problem for Carly Fiorina, and it’s her weaker-than-expected connection with California women. That same PPIC poll gave her only 32 percent of the women’s vote, the same as GOP gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman. For Fiorina, it’s a 16-point gender gap, which figures to an 8 point deficit in the total vote.
That’s curious, since Fiorina in her stump speech talks about the tough climb from receptionist to CEO and her very personal feelings about the “life” issue (her husband’s mother was tempted to abort her son; unable to have children herself, Fiorina believes strongly in adoption). It makes for a very moving connection — the antithesis of the all-business, mostly centrist Whitman campaign. Plus, it’s Pink October and Fiorina is a recent breast-cancer survivor.
One final note on California Senate history — and, unfortunately, it’s a sour note. The 1994 Republican “wave” election resulted in a pickup of eight Senate seats for the GOP, yet Dianne Feinstein won that year. In 1980, the same year the GOP gained twelve Senate seats (and a California Republican won the presidency, for cryin’ out loud), Alan Cranston defeated Prop 13 co-author Paul Gann.
— Bill Whalen is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Fiorina and Whitman in the beginning were too much blurred together; now Whitman is looking bland, typecast as Richie Rich, because it is a very populist year.
Cal. has so many pro-abortion voters, as other states have their gun or coal or Israel blocs. Get used to saying "Senator Boxer" next year, unfortunately.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFiorina's problem in California is due to the known quantity of Hewlett Packard in all parts of the state.
Lets face it, she was not a very good CEO. It was a style thing. She was cold, abrasive and arrogant in her dealings with people.
You are reminded of this in her commercials, where she has her facts together, but there is almost no human connection. She is actually reminiscent of Hillary Clinton in that respect.
She should win, because Boxer is incompetent and evil, but she wont, because she simply isn't likable. Fiorina would have done better had she established residency in another state.
Every computer geek in California has a HP\Fiorina horror story they shared with friends.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe most recent PPIC has Boxer +5, not +7. The more recent polls from Rasmussen and Survey USA have her +4 and +2 respectively.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseStatewide candidates need only win LA and the Bay Area and they're in.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs much as it pains me to say as a former Californian (born and raised), the electorate of that state will not change until the light switches don't work when turned on, unemployment over 20%, and taxes above 60-70% for the middle class.
And even then they may still vote into office left-wing Democrats.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBoth I and my husband are former HPers, thanks to Carly, and yes I've got my stories. Frankly, I thought her abrasive nature would actually increase her odds. Let's face it - this is California, where cheerful,attractive women work in Hollywood, and hard as rusty nails and just as attractive women work in Sacramento.
Yes, liberalism is the entrenched order of the day in some regions. But California is a big state. Drive even half an hour away from any of the entrenched liberal areas like San Francisco or L.A. and you'll see the farmland drying up because of water, or the bedroom communities that are ghost-towns because of the economy. Those are realities that Californians drive through and live in every day.And for the first time I can remember, there are homemade signs everywhere calling for Barb et al to go. (Note, not necessarily supporting Carly, but still.) When even San Francisco has a local measure on its ballot calling for government workers to start paying for a portion of their benefits, and it looks like it will pass, that's a sign that even in Nancy's own town people are getting fed up.
Carly's got a shot. If she gets it, she just better show that she learned some hard lessons from her HP experience and execute, execute, execute.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI also would not underestimate the power of illegal voters. They certainly aren't voting for Republicans, and they are huge in numbers.
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