If this is the way Obama really thinks, it suggests a cluelessness bordering on delusion.

The principal difficulty in predicting Obama's post-midterm political strategy is that he cannot be counted on to make smart political decisions. If Obama had good political judgment, he wouldn't find his party on the verge of figurative defenestration less than two years after his triumphant coronation. Even if the correct decisions are knowable, we have no reason to suspect that Obama will choose them.

Obama's best shot for re-election is to adopt a form of Clinton's post-1994 repositioning. Of course, anyone can tell you that; if I had a nickel for every time I've heard the words "triangulate" or "foil" in this context, I'd have, well, I'd have a lot of nickels. But I think the focus on Clinton's substantive maneuvers passes over the significant feat that Clinton had to accomplish first: finally appearing presidential after two years of jackassery.

1993-94 Clinton was scandal-prone, disorganized, and bumbling. Clinton cruised into Washington, overreading his mandate, and used arm-twisting and bribery to give the people laws that they had not asked for. Clinton banged podiums and punched down, blaming the Party of No with purple-faced rage. Sound familiar?

1995-96 Clinton learned that "president" includes the word "preside." Everyone talks about Clinton's tactful triangulation, but this wasn't as much a policy choice as it was the consequence of Clinton's maturing in office. He was no longer involved in the day-to-day sausage-making on Capitol Hill. No longer was every move that Congress made attributable to Clinton. Rather, he sat back and let the GOP propose legislation. The remaining Congressional Democrats moved it left. By the time it hit Clinton's desk, it was either in a palatable form, in which case he signed it and took credit, or vetoed it and demagogued the living hell out of it. (See, e.g., the 1995 budget standoff).

That's how you preside: you pick your battles. Obama doesn't get that yet. He insists on Congress' agenda matching his own, which is absolute lunacy. After 1994, Clinton was smart enough to avoid leaving his chubby fingerprints the nasty business of Congress. But Obama smiles and back-slaps with Nancy Pelosi, she of the microscopic approval rating. Obama's tying of himself to Congress, which is nearly always more unpopular than the president, can only have one effect on his approval ratings: straight down. No competent politician would allow himself to appear within 100 miles of Nancy Pelosi, but she and Obama have been joined at the hip.

The first thing that Obama should do on the morning of November 3rd is locate the person who counseled him to pick fights with Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, and that cop in Cambridge, and who told him to do commercials for George Lopez and go on late night talk shows. Then he should send that person to a missile tracking station in Greenland for the remainder of his term. The office of the president is bigger than that, and Obama just diminishes himself and the office with that garbage. Then it's time to preside, and not to respond to every last criticism. Triangulation will come naturally: just sit back and let Congress block or water down what the GOP wants to do. No need to get your hands dirty fighting the GOP when you've got at least 49 Senators to do it for you. Pick only fights that you are sure to win.

Will this work, as it did for Clinton? Not necessarily. Clinton had the advantage of taking office over a year into an economic expansion, and by the time 1995 rolled around, the economy was starting to hit its stride. Obama likely won't have the economic wind at his back over the next two years, and if he does it will only be a slight breeze. But as Bill Clinton himself once observed, when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. That's what Obama needs to do, whether he realizes it or not.