Day of the Democratic Dead: Seat-by-Seat Predictions

by Henry Olsen

Over on the homepage, I explain my prediction that tomorrow will be a “Day of the Democratic Dead.” Here’s my seat-by-seat breakdown of congressional races.

Republican Holds: Alaska; Florida; Kentucky; Missouri; Ohio.

Republican Gains: Arkansas; Colorado; Illinois; Indiana; Nevada; North Dakota; Pennsylvania; Washington; Wisconsin.

My House predictions require a brief explanation. I divided House races into four categories — likely, probable, possible, and potential party switches:

— Likely Party Switches: These are seats I am 100 percent certain will change party hands. The number at the bottom of the column for these seats is simply the net difference between Democratic and Republican gains.

— Probable Party Switches:
These are seats I am fairly certain will switch, but I acknowledge I will be wrong on some. The number at the bottom of the column reflects 85 percent of the total number of seats listed. I have placed a “–” sign next to seats I am most uncertain about;

— Potential Party Switches:
These are my true toss-ups. I know many of them will switch parties, but I am sufficiently unsure of most of them to venture a hard prediction. I have ventured guesses as to who will win each seat; the number at the bottom reflects the net difference between Democratic and Republican pick-ups. If Republicans win more than my predicted 64 seats, they will do so largely with seats in this column;

— Possible Party Switches:
These are seats that are likely to stay Democratic, but which could fall to the Republicans. In massive wave years like this one, some seats in this category always fall. I have ventured my best guess as to which ones those will be, and the number at the bottom of the column reflects that.

My total prediction, +64 House seats, is the sum of all the numbers at the end of each column. My range is my best estimate of the possible outcomes based on generic ballot polls and the dynamics of each individual race.

My “super upset specials” are races I think are total sleepers. They are highly unlikely to switch, but the underlying demographics or race dynamics make them intriguing to watch for on election night.

Likely Party Switch: 32 (R→D in bold)
AR-1 OPEN (Berry, D)
AR-2 OPEN (Snyder, D)
AZ-1 (Kirkpatrick, D)
AZ-5 (Mitchell, D)
CO-4 (Markey, D)
DE-AL OPEN (Castle, R)
FL-2 (Boyd, D)
FL-8 (Grayson, D)
FL-24 (Kosmas, D)
GA-8 (Marshall, D)
IL-11 (Halvorson, D)
IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth, D)
KS-3 OPEN (D. Moore, D)
LA-2 (Cao, R)
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon, D)
MD-1 (Kratovil, D)
MS-1 (Childers, D)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter, D)
NM-2 (Teague, D)
OH-1 (Driehaus, D)
OH-15 (Kilroy, D)
OH-16 (Boccieri, D)
OH-18 (Space, D)
PA-3 (Dahlkemper, D)
TN-6 OPEN (Gordon, D)
TN-8 OPEN (Tanner, D)
TX-17 (Edwards, D)
SC-5 (Spratt, D)
VA-2 (Nye, D)
WA-3 OPEN (Baird, D)
WI-8 (Kagen, D)
+28 R

Probable Party Switch: 24 (R→D in bold)
AL-2 (Bright, D)
CA-11 (McNerney, D)
CO-3 (J. Salazar, D)
CT-5 (C. Murphy, D) –
IL-14 (Foster, D)
IL-17 (Hare, D)
IN-9 (Hill, D)
MI-1 OPEN (Stupak, D)
MI-7 (Schauer, D)
MO-4 (Skelton, D) –
MS-4 (Taylor, D)
NV-3 (Titus, D)
NY-19 (Hall, D)
NY-20 (S. Murphy, D)
NY-23 (Owens, D)
ND-AL (Pomeroy, D)
OH-6 (C. Wilson, D)
OR-5 (Schrader, D) –
PA-8 (P. Murphy, D)
PA-11 (Kanjorski, D)
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin, D)
TN-4 (L. Davis, D)
WI-7 OPEN (Obey, D)
VA-5 (Perriello, D)
+21 R

Potential Party Switch: 24 (R→D in bold)
AZ-8 (Giffords, D) D
CA-20 (Costa, D) D
FL-22 (Klein, D) R
GA-2 (S. Bishop, D) R
HI-1 (Djou, R) R
ID-1 (Minnick, D) D
IL-10 OPEN (Kirk, R) D
IN-2 (Donnelly, D) R
KY-6 (Chandler, D) R
MA10 OPEN (Delahunt, D) D
MN-1 (Walz, D) D
NJ-3 (Adler, D) R
NY-1 (T. Bishop, D) R
NY-24 (Arcuri, D) R
NM-1 (Heinrich, D) R
NC-2 (Etheridge, D) D
NC-7 (McIntyre, D) R
NC-8 (Kissell, D) R
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak, D) R
PA-10 (Carney, D) D
TX-23 (Rodriguez, D) R
VA-9 (Boucher, D) R
VA-11 (Connolly, D) D
WV-1 OPEN (Mollohan, D) R
+13 R

Possible Party Switch: 17 (R→D in bold)
CA-47 (Lo. Sanchez, D)
CO-7 (Perlmutter, D)
CT-4 (Himes, D) R
IA-3 (Boswell, D)
MI-9 (Peters, D)
MN-7 (Peterson, D)*
MN-8 (Oberstar, D) R
MO-3 (Carnahan, D)
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes, D)
NY-13 (McMahon, D)
NC-11 (Shuler, D)
OR-4 (DeFazio, D)*
PA-4 (Altmire, D)
PA-12 (Critz, D)
RI-1 OPEN (Kennedy, D)
UT-2 (Matheson, D)*
WA-2 (Larsen, D)
+2 R

* = super upset specials

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