Hubris Watch

by Ramesh Ponnuru

Tim Carney writes that

the country is returning to where it was politically before the Republicans threw away their majority in 2006 and 2008 through overspending, two wars, and rampant corruption.

The bad news for Democrats: This suggests that America really is a Republican country, with 2006 and 2008 as aberrations. It appears that the Democrats are a narrow regional party, contrary to the post-2008 conventional wisdom they had become the dominant national party. . . .

America probably won’t wake up Wednesday to a new political reality. More likely we’ll realize that the last four years didn’t quite reflect reality, and we’ve been living in a Republican country all along.

I agree that the last two election results did not reflect the real underlying political division of the country. But I strongly suspect that the next House will be to the right of the country as a whole, the product of (among other things) an unusually lopsided conservative turnout.

But let’s not forget that Republicans have won a majority (or even a plurality) of the vote in only one of the last five presidential elections. This is not a Republican country.