Welcome to the 2012 election cycle. The three most vulnerable Democratic senators in 2012 are probably Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and Jon Tester of Montana. Republicans also may target Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Jim Webb of Virginia, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Herb Kohl of Wisconsin. Retirement watch: Dianne Feinstein of California (age in 2012: 79), Daniel Akaka of Hawaii (88), Nelson of Nebraska (71), and Kohl (77).
At the moment, the GOP doesn’t have any obviously vulnerable incumbents, except possibly for Scott Brown of Massachusetts. Also, Dick Lugar of Indiana will be 80.
I repeat. The GOP should be putting Pennsylvania and Colorado under a microscope to figure out why Toomey and Buck underperformed. They have to come up with a strategy to break the Iron Triangle of Democrats-Union-Media. Tea Parties and Talk Radio, obviously, just aren't enough.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBecause Lugar has shown increasing RINOcity, he is vulnerable to a challenge in the Republican primary, if he chooses to run again.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJohn Ensign is another vulnerable Republican, unless you think his post-indictment replacement will be stronger. The seats held by Snowe, Hutchison and Lugar could become so with retirements and/or Tea Party challenges. But even if all five seats (the above 4 plus Brown) are at risk the Republicans still seem to have the clear advantage.
I will note that at this point in 2008 the 2010 races seemed to give the advantage to Democrats.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEnsign in NV. His ethics scandal is a continuing topic here that tempts Dems.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt would be refreshing to see Senators from either party retire when they reach, say 75 years old. Senator Lugar is an artifact from the Reagan ear, who has pretty much been a bench warmer these last 2 decades. As far as I can remember, the only time he decides to make public utterances was to critique Bush43 over Iraq or to give praise to President Obama's SCOTUS nominations. Luger has become the poster child of what is wrong with the Senate. His name and brand recognition within Indiana shields him from internal party competition; and I am sure the Indiana Republican party is happy just to allow him stay in power while younger more conservative talent languishes.
If Lugar does not announce his retirement, perhaps it is time for someone to actively go after his seat (Mike Pence?).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJohn Ensign isn't vulnerable? He'll likely retire, but still. And Snowe, among others, will face a primary challenge.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou mean the Dick Lugar who voted for Elena Kagen, Sonya Sotamayor and Cass Sustein? The Dick Lugar who supported nearly every gun control bill that's come before him? The Dick Lugar who supports the START treaty? Or the Dick Lugar who is the DREAM acts only Republican co-sponsor.
As a Hoosier, I look forward to ridding the Senate of this state embarrassment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Florida GOP brain trust has not done a good job at all in fielding candidates in recent years. Rubio's the rare exception, and even he had to fight the party.
The GOP would have kept control of the Senate from 2007-08 if they could have found someone with a name to knock off vulnerable Bill Nelson, instead of the obscure and unfortunately named Will McBride. And they wouldn't have lost the Senate from 2001-02 via Jeffords' defection if they had kept Nelson from turning the retiring Connie Mack's seat from blue to red in 2000, a GOP year. But uncharismatic career pol Bill McCollum gave Nelson a path to victory which he seized. I see no reason to think McCollum won't put his name up again in 2012 and again be the presumptive favorite. Think of a less competitive Dino Rossi for a parallel. Or the Washington Generals.
Part of the problem is Jeb Bush's aloof status as would-be kingmaker. He either needs to get into these races himself or just stop weighing in.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe battle of the Bills (FL): McCullum vs. Nelson 2012
Slogan: McCullom, because he makes pit-bulls nervous.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"except possibly for Scott Brown of Massachusetts"
POSSIBLY?! They are going to throw $10 million at him, just for starters. We couldn't take any house seats in the state in the best GOP midterm year in ages. He only got 51.9% in his win. Brown is going to be in an absolute dogfight.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs respected as our elder Senator is, I believe it is time for Sen. Lugar to step down and let a younger person step forward. He has served Hoosiers well but he has also become part of that established coterie of Senators who can say of an idealogical opponent; "He's a nice guy; a friend" when that same nice guy will stab him in the back on a vote or a bill.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFirst order of business: to mount a successful primary challenge to the utterly unacceptable Lindsey Graham (Hermaphrodite, SC) -- a la Tim Lee in Utah.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWouldn't Sherrod Brown be a huge target, given that he is extremely liberal and Ohio is apparently not nearly as blue as people thought?
Is there any chance of unseating Amy Klobuchar, who got 58% in 2006? Let's hope 2012 will be much less of a Dem year than 2006 was.
The two Nelsons have been voting the same way forever, so it seems like they are guaranteed their seats forever even though they are both more liberal than the states they supposedly represent.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRed State has Scott Brown, Richard Lugar, John Kyl and several others on a list that should be primaried out in 2012. Lugar is old, can retire with dignity, and be easily replaced with a Republican. I consider myself conservative, but I can't ever remember disagreeing with Kyl. And I truly believe that Scott Brown is as good as it gets from Massachusetts, although he might be primaried out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe must remain real. And I don't agree with Jim DeMint that 30 conservative Repubs in the Senate are better than a majority with some who have less than 100 ACA ratings.
Yeah, let's replace Feinstein with a Barbara Boxer clone. Now that the gay-marriage loving Gavin Newsom has won the Lt. Governor's race in California, look for him to be a contender for the race.
If the absolutely terrible Boxer can win, any lefty can win.
California is just a basket case, and getting worse.
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