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The Rivlin-Domenici Alternative to the Deficit Commission Report

A week after the deficit commission released its preliminary report, economist Alice Rivlin and former New Mexico senator Pete Domenici have released their own shadow report and have taken to the pages of the Washington Post to make their case for it.

The Rivlin-Domenici plan wouldn’t cut spending; it freezes some small portion of the budget at 2011 levels but that’s pretty much it.

We would freeze domestic discretionary spending for four years and defense spending for five, both at 2011 levels, and then limit their future growth to the rate of growth in the economy.”

Because there is not much in the way of spending cuts here, the “fiscal responsibility” in this shadow report comes from increases in tax revenue — for instance, a 6.5 percent sales tax for “debt-reduction.” That’s a first step toward a VAT. As many people, including me, have argued before, this is a terrible idea (read more on the VAT here). Their payroll-tax holiday of $800 billion would have to be offset with more borrowing now in order to pay current Social Security benefits. Controlling our debt explosion with more debt seems like a terrible idea.

Another jam in the proposal is the the tax on high-calorie sodas. The point here is to jack up the price of sugary drinks to control health-care costs. I have written about how bad an idea this is, since doesn’t raise much revenue and certainly doesn’t control obesity:

Richard Williams and Katelyn Christ, two economists at the Mercatus Center (where I work), argue that soda drinkers would [not work]. In a 2009 study, they wrote: “The assumption is that this sin tax would reduce caloric intake because consumers would stop drinking high-calorie drinks and/or switch to lower-calorie drinks. However…if consumers respond to the proposed sin tax on sodas and sports drinks by switching to some of the potential substitute drinks [see table], their caloric intake would either remain the same or actually increase.”

In a 2008 working paper, Emory University economists Jason Fletcher, David Frisvold, and Nathan Tefft examined the impact that changes in states’ taxation rates from 1990 to 2006 had on body mass index and obesity. They concluded that soft drink taxes have a vanishingly small impact on weight because, even when untaxed, soft drinks represent only 7 percent of the average soda drinker’s total calorie intake.

If the government wants to have a role in the fight against obesity and they think sugar is part of the problem, then why not get rid of farm subsidies, especially those that go to the sugar barons who control Florida Crystals and Domino Sugar? It’s hypocritical to fight sugar on one hand while favoring it on the other. As you know, the federal government guarantees a minimum price for sugar in the domestic market by maintaining a system of preferential loan agreements, domestic marketing quotas, and import barriers. In fact, according to USDA data, U.S. sugar prices have been more than twice world market prices.

To be sure, Rivlin and Domenici call for compromises on both sides of the aisle. But their proposal only demands compromises on the part of those who believe that the government is too big and out of control, and those who believe that spending could be significantly cut without “eviscerating the American middle class.” It is much more in line with what I had expected the deficit commission report to look like. Live and learn.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   3

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   11/17/10 15:44

I weigh more than twice what I should and have rarely had a sugared drink in the last 40 years. I don't think taxing sugared drinks or soda of any kind will affect anyone's caloric intake. Taxing video games and computers, and other things that encourage sedentary behavior, might. My downfall was enjoying reading more than activity.

The FLOTUS focus on childhood obesity is another example of inappropriate and misguided do-gooding. When I was a serioualy overweight child, anyone trying to encourage me to lose weight wound up making me feel unloved and unacceptable as I was. I then tried to avoid people who I assumed all hated me for being fat, sat home reading books and eating snack food. My research indicates this is not a winning strategy in the war on fat kids, a.k.a. war on childhood obesity. But I am not worried. This administration has no stamina or courage for a prolonged battle, so I assume the FLOTUS will be setting a withdrawal date sometime soon, no doubt with promises to keep nagging -- uh, supporting the effort -- as needed.

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   11/17/10 18:23

I don't want to seem unkind or to add to former Senator Domenici's burden, but facts are facts:

External Link 

"Four prominent neurologists say they cannot see how Sen. Pete Domenici can continue his work as a U.S. senator given his diagnosis with frontotemporal lobar degeneration, a type of dementia....Dr. David Knopman, a neurologist at the Mayo Clinic, says when his patients learn they have FTLD, he tells them it's best to stop working.

'They would be prone to have poor judgment and make mistakes,' Knopman said. 'I would encourage them to leave their employment.'"

That was *October 2007*. It's nearly 3 years later into a progressive dementia. It's fair to ask: Is Domenici merely being used here, as bipartisan cover? How much of this analysis is his work? What level of discernment has the disease left him?

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Steve Roth
   11/19/10 11:22

> Controlling our debt explosion with more debt seems like a terrible idea.

This Joe-The-Plumber truism displays a complete lack of understanding of macroeconomics and monetary theory. Or intentional obtuseness.

Take a clue from Jim Manzi (at his best): go find the *best* arguments that disagree with you, give them the credit they're due, then argue from there.

That's what people do who really want to understand how the world works, as opposed to proving that the world works the way they want to think it works.

A kudos, though, for taking Tyler's capital-gains comments in that vein. Now try doing that with other well-reasoned arguments, from people that you don't like agreeing with.

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