I’ve never understood why so many conservatives are so adamant that President Obama won’t triangulate. Yes, there are some structural obstacles, as Jonah pointed out the other day. Obamacare passed, forcing him to defend a big, unpopular piece of left-wing legislation in a way Clinton didn’t have to. The left is noisier and more influential than when Clinton was in office. Also, as John Harris wrote a while ago, it’s easy to exaggerate the ease with which Clinton triangulated, when it really was a wrenching process.
All that said, as I’ve argued before, I believe Obama is going to do some triangulation because, 1) he has no other option–big left-wing initiatives are closed off for now; 2) he wants to get re-elected. You’ll often hear conservatives say Obama is such a sincere left-winger that he won’t and can’t move to the center. But he was just as sincere a left-winger in 2008, when he campaigned on tax cuts and examining the budget line-by-line and living within our means. It’s basically an axiom of American political life that liberals who want to get elected or re-elected president have to trim their sails. And we can assume that Obama, no matter what he says about how he’s willing to be a righteous one-termer, wants to get reelected.
So he’s going to triangulate. How much is the question. His proposal today for a federal pay freeze is a move to the center in a decidedly minor key. But it’s also relatively painless. If he finds a half-dozen of these kind of moves, he might soften his image as a partisan liberal a bit. Not enough, though, which is why I think he’s going to have to come up with some sort of big proposal for not terribly credible budget reductions. Say, a 10-year plan that generates a fairly large number for savings over that period, but that backloads most of it to year 6 and beyond, when he’ll no longer be in office even if reelected.
Consider yourself warned!
You credit him with too much practicality. I think the consensus is that he's too arrogant to be willing to compromise..
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusei hear you, but again, he was just as arrogant in 08, when he ran as a moderate-sounding Democrat. the next two years are like one long election campaign--most everything he does will be geared to his re-election...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePardon me if I sound simplistic but I believe (or hope) the freshman GOP house members will outlast Obama in any triangulation game. What plausible majority coalition can stand against them? They know they were elected to by hook or crook actually cut govt spending and that I believe they will do and Obama will cave.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRich you are a wise young man....but you have not lived with evil, and been evil as I...
This man Obama, is straight out of the neighborHOOD. His tactics are similar to those I actualize all my young life until I grew up.
1. Say anything you need to say to get where you are going.
2. Do anything you need to do to maintain status quo once arrived.
Forest for the trees. Civilized people who are "mannerfull" tend to let their virtue cloud the reality of those who "play" us for fools...and often, all too often...successful
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To triangulate is to admit he was wrong about his original trajectory, and narcissists are dispositionally incapable of admitting that they were wrong.
He will either double down and stay the course or lose interest in being POTUS at all.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think the difference, Rich, is that in 2008, he was a blank slate to an electorate who wanted to believe. He doesn't have that luxury anymore. I just don't think he has it in him to be the triangulator-in-chief. His attempts will be awkward, half-hearted and unconvincing, like Paul Lynde playing a romantic scene with Florence Henderson. He's says the words as typed on the teleprompter but his heart isn't in the delivery. I expect him - to use a much belabored expression - to "double down" and try to run against a "do nothing Congress" a la Truman.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama has already told so many lies that no one with a brain believes anything he says. He will continue to lie, and MSM will continue to cover for him, and a lot of people will buy the show.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think the difference is that Clinton could control the left-wing pressure groups better, like when he signed welfare reform. Obama might try to triangulate, but when his union buddies complain Obama is more likely to crumple.
Speaking of which, let's see what happens with this Federal pay freeze after the large Federal worker unions (AFGE and NTEU) scream bloody murder. Does Obama throw them under the bus or ask "how high" when they demand that he jumps?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAgree with Jay. Obama ran against an incumbent president who was even on the ballot during a time of great economic uncertainty. To wit, the economy was the number one issue voters based their decision on in 2008.
Obama now has less than 18 months to substantively turn the economy around yet is pursuing policies that run counter to sound economics. ObamaCare will begin to burden companies (who were not granted waivers) starting in 2011, as Americans only begin to feel the pain of an already unpopular national policy.
Obama's base won't permit him to move off the increased tax burden on the upper bracket, which will result in even further job cuts.
No, Rich, Obama will make some rather insignificant gestures like the wage freeze on federal workers but overall that means little to unemployed, over-regulated Americans.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama will not cave. He will give the appearance of "triangulating" on any number of programs, along with demanding increased taxation and cutting the military, but will continue in his determination to bring race-socialism (he will, of course, along with his loathsome AG play the race card every chance he gets) to America and is not about to turn back or back down on anything.
Republicans may be able to prevent new initiatives but Obama is confident they will not be able to halt the expansion and consolidation on existing ones. And with the media solidly behind him, he will be able to continue to blame a do-nothing congress/Bush/capitalism with no difficulty.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"You’ll often hear conservatives say Obama is such a sincere left-winger that he won’t and can’t move to the center. But he was just as sincere a left-winger in 2008, when he campaigned on tax cuts and examining the budget line-by-line and living within our means."
Yes, but when he was campaigning he only had to *say* he was in favour of those things. To triangulate in office he will actually have to *do* some of them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe only thing needed for a liberal politician to "triangulate" successfully is a compliant media willing to promote the effort. And Hopey-Dopey sure has that going for him. I hate seeing the NRO-ers wasting their time on matters such as this. Instead just be ready to pull back the curtain when his national charade begins.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think Rich's premise is probably correct. The problem for Obama, I think, is that nobody is going to believe him about much of anything. Clinton hadn't lost this much credibility in his first two years. So yeah, he may triangulate, but he's not going to win back those voters who are now embarrassed that they voted for him in the first place.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRich, you seem to be confusing campaigning with governing. Of course he campaigned on tax cuts, etc. He understands what the American public wants and said what they wanted to hear. What he said in the campaign has almost no correlation with what he's done. He's more of an ideologue than Clinton by a mile. I'll be surprised if he moderates.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusethank you very much.I like to read this news.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseVery good analysis. We cannot underestimate this socialist left wing lust for power. His main goal is to remain in power and if he has to triangulate to be re-elected then he will do it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOh come on, Rich. This is naivete beyond belief.
Almost all Democrats run as moderates. If Obama actually ran on his agenda, he would have never been elected. That's called politics, perhaps you should acquaint yourself with it.
The federal pay freeze is easy and minor but has no real effect. People will still be promoted. And, here's data for you. Government salaries have already soared under the Obama Administration. It's an empty gesture.
External Link
So to sum: "We increased government salaries like never before, but now let's talk about 'freezing' them, which isn't really a freeze at all."
A true move to the center would be cutting the Federal workforce, and discussing how much to cut it by.
Conservatives like you, Rich Lowry, are happy when the bleeding slows from a geyser to mere faucet levels.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn 2008 he could say anything that he wanted, whether he intended to live by those words or not. Now he has to back up his words with actions -- or not. My bet is that he won't, for two reasons: because he doesn't want to and because he can't.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn 2008 he could say anything that he wanted, whether he intended to live by those words or not. Now he has to back up his words with actions -- or not. My bet is that he won't, for two reasons: because he doesn't want to and because he can't.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere are some serious obstacles to Obama mangaing anything close to the kind of triangulation Clinton pulled off, and that's getting beyond Obamacare, which the President will treat with all the reverence Democrats ascribe to Social Security.
First, Clinton learned to triangulate long before he reached the White House. One of his seminal experiences as a politician was losing the governorship of Arkansas to Frank White. Afterwards, he became much more cognizant of the political requirements of staying in power. His pivot after the 1994 election may have been "wrenching" to some extent, but it was firmly in character for a politician who viewed maintaining political power as the first and most important objective of politics.
Obama's problem is not simply that he has never before faced the kind of political rebuke he received in the 2010 election. Obama's problem is that he is under the misconception that his politics are firmly in the mainstream and that he is already governing with moderation.
I've always thought the President was a doctrinare progressive but I think many of us have labored under the notion that Obama realizes how radical some of his prescriptions are. His constant protestations about explaining things to the public have convinced me otherwise. I think there's a very good chance that he believes that his views resonate with moderate Americans, in and of themselves. If this is the case, he will play a whole lot of defense and try to paint the GOP as obstructionist.
Certainly, Obama will attempt to find a few issues that he can work with the GOP on, but Clinton caved on some core issues, including spending and welfare reform. At this point, does anyone really beleive that Obama is intrinsically capable of not just backing away from some key issues, but deliberately and meaningfully compromising with Republicans in areas where he has already forcefully taken a position? That's what he needs to do to recapture the middle. He needs to be the president he told everyone he would be.
It's a tall order.
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