Watching the floor debate in the Senate today, Senator McCain looks like a no on New START, and Sen. Corker — who voted the treaty out of committee — appears increasingly sore over Reid’s decision to bring votes on DREAM and DADT alongside New START. The scuttlebutt from Hill staffers is that Senator Graham might be leaning no as well. Isakson, who also voted with the Democrats to pass START out of committe, will prove key. If all four are going to oppose New START, it probably can’t pass.
UPDATE: Senator Graham, in remarks just now on the Senate floor, said New START’s preamble, which many believe contains an implicit limitation on U.S. missile defense, should be taken out of treaty, or else it “would be better not to do the treaty.” “You should not sign the treaty” without losing the preamble, Graham said.
If you had 66 votes for cloture, plus Bayh (who was not present), you get 67.
However...
Unless this vote is held tomorrow, Wyden might miss his vote, taking the total down to 66. In addition, without McCain and Graham, you're down to 64. Even if you get Issakson or Corker (or BOTH) you're still short of 67, and there is really nobody left whose arm can be twisted to vote "yea." In addition, there is the possibility (however slim it may be) that both Snowe and Murkowski vote "nay" as well, since Snowes approval was conditioned upon reasonable time for debate, and Murkowski originally voted nay before quickly changing her mind to vote in favor of debate, thus making her stance "iffy."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFor the Senate to ratify a treaty, 2/3 *of members present* must vote for it. Thus, if the vote is held on Monday (when Wyden will be having colon-cancer surgery), 66 votes would be needed for ratification (or 65 if 2 other Senators miss the vote as well).
I don't think that Reid has the votes.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhere is the Whip count? Who is for and who against? At the very least we should have a roll call count for cloture
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